Kurds gain support, perhaps invitation to Syrian talks

QAMISHLI, Syria — Since the battles against the Islamic State (IS) in Baghouz ended in March, several factors have indicated the Kurdish-led autonomous administration in northeast Syria is garnering international political support.

Previously, support to that region — known as Syrian Kurdistan or Rojava — from the international coalition against IS had been limited to military and security aspects. Now, diplomatic visits have increased in frequency, actually coming weekly in the past two months, Abdul Karim Omar, head of the region's Foreign Relations Department, told Al-Monitor.

Most foreign delegations visiting the self-administration area used to avoid the media and focused on receiving their countries' children and wives of IS fighters held there. But there has been a shift since June in the number and quality of these visits.

Since then, nine diplomatic delegations have traveled to Rojava, representing several countries that are part of the international coalition. A high-level Swedish delegation led by that country's envoy to Syria, Brower Yeniouz, arrived June 18.

Upon arriving to the Foreign Relations Department in Qamishli, Yeniouz told reporters, “The United Nations and partner countries believe that this region and the Kurds must have a voice in the creation of the future of Syria.”

A lot is in play as this war in Syria passes to a negotiated ending.

It will be interesting to see if the rumored death of the Turkish Islamist dictator, Erdogan, is clarified. There is no official statement about those rumors, but denial that they are true. All news out of Turkey is 100% state approved propaganda.

I have little confidence in the UN solving any problem. But the coalition who defeated ISIS may be different. Those elements will not be discussing the realty of their influence on this in the news.

It looks like Erdogan is alive, he spoke publicly yesterday (25 July): https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Erdogan-says-Turkey-will-turn-elsewhere-if-US-will-not-sell-F-35s-596878

In terms of International support, the USA is the single best country to have with you. The commitment of France though (who had troops on the ground in the Kurdish areas of Syria, and committed their aircraft carrier and extensive air support to the Kurdish effort against ISIS), is a seriously significant support.

France and Germany are the key pillars of the EU (all the more with Brexit becoming near and certain). Germany’s historic ties with Turkey have weakened under Erdogan, and French support for the Kurds seems at an all time high.

Beyond France’s powerful influence to sway the whole of the EU, they also wield considerable diplomatic influence worldwide, and within the UN (where French is one of their six official languages, but is unofficially regarded as the traditional language of diplomacy, second perhaps, only to English).

Sweden has its own foreign policy (and humanitarian relief issues is a hallmark of it), but the can also be functioning as representatives of the EU (formally or informally). Swedish opinion is influential among other Scandinavian countries, and carries some moral capital among Europeans, especially those moderately left of center.

One really big indicator, would be if the Saudis (or a surrogate, like Bahrain or Kuwait), was visiting and coordinating support. They can swing lots of votes in the UN, bring significant reconstruction investment, and have a lot of influence among regional Sunnis - especially tribes within what is now Rojava, and what is still Syria.

The Saudis would have to tread carefully to avoid alienating local Sunnis, many of who (and their tribal leaders) supported ISIS. They are quite adept at managing such relations though - so their support of Kurdish involvement would indicate a strong level of internal reconciliation, and/or a very strong potential for it.

Prayers and best wishes for the people there, as they recover from the horrible civil war.

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