Not sure i would arrogantly dismiss the predictions of someone who ended up being 100% correct. The smart position would be to take it seriously.
When a contest is more cheatable such as in 2018 (those cars full of alleged late votes that appeared out of nowhere all over the place), things can be “predicted” indeed.
She wasn’t 100% correct.
That’s just it, I am not arrogantly dismissing this I am confidently dismissing it. That’s why I posted “the smart position” for 2016 in my post. :)
They weren’t 100% correct. They just did very well in one mid-term race.
There will be the inevitable excuse why they were wrong in 2020.
Because....
Trump 2020~
I think Trump’s re-election is no sure thing. I don’t dismiss this forecast but it doesn’t worry me either. Voting wins elections, not predictions.
I did a quick web search on this prof and I could not find any info on how long she’s been using this forecasting model. If you’re telling me she correctly predicted ONE election, and not a presidential at that, then I’m not very impressed.
“Not sure i would arrogantly dismiss the predictions of someone who ended up being 100% correct.”
except that there are at least a half a dozen models that go back all the way to WWII that have predicted every President but one, and ALL of THOSE models predict Trump will win ...
No, the smart decision is to ignore it as nonsense.
Or it could have been a guess that matched reality by chance.
Meh... A track record of 1 poll win for a midterm election doesn’t hold much weight. I predicted the midterms correctly and didn’t need to use a poll to do so. A lot can happen between now and the election.