Trump will lose 2020 per unique prediction model that nailed 2018 midterm results

Oregonian ^ | July 18, 2019 | Douglas Perry

[dgbrown]

Sounds like Bernie is leading the pack and the Establishment doesn’t like it.

[newfreep]

Trump will lose if the coming massive vote fraud is not stopped.

[Ikeon]

The left is convinced he’s the terminator and by hook and by crook will go all out in 2020. So....there is no way Trump will win in a fair election. because the right doesn’t fight dirty.

[Dilbert San Diego]

Anderson was the 3rd party candidate in 1980, not 1976.

[Olog-hai]

When a contest is more cheatable such as in 2018 (those cars full of alleged late votes that appeared out of nowhere all over the place), things can be “predicted” indeed.

[bigbob]

Yessearchstillworks

[Rio]

The Prophet:

[monkeyshine]

Yes, Clinton won because of Perot. And once he was in, he won again also in part because of Perot but also the power of incumbency.

Trump is polarizing, but that doesn’t mean pragmatic arguments won’t be a factor for the I voters in the center.

[plain talk]

““unless it ends up being a disruptor like Bernie Sanders.” Whoever wins the Democratic nomination — other than possibly Bernie, that is — will defeat Trump in the general election.”

Bernie is not the only disruptor. Kamala is certainly a disruptor. Even Biden will try out the disruptor act for size.

[Jet Jaguar]

Ping.

[butlerweave]

Carnac the Magnificent ?

[wastoute]

Trump is the last president. It doesn’t matter if they “win”.

[monkeyshine]

Yes, or, contrary to what this woman says - the Dem candidate may not attract as many votes as HRC did.

[pleasenotcalifornia]

At the end of election night in 2018 Rachael was off by quite a bit. Within a week of Democrat post-election vote counting her forecast was right on. Democrat vote stealing carried the day.

[Frapster]

She wasn’t 100% correct.

[TigersEye]

That’s just it, I am not arrogantly dismissing this I am confidently dismissing it. That’s why I posted “the smart position” for 2016 in my post. :)

[Dr. Sivana]

Rachel Bitecofer, the assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Virginia’s Christopher Newport University, created a unique prediction model that almost perfectly foretold in July 2018 the results of the 2018 midterm election.

There is an old scam done by "experts" who take money for football predictions. They offer a free lock to new customers. If they get 100 calls, 50 get the home team, 50 get the visitors. Half of the customers will be impressed.

One called off-year election does not necessarily translate into a model that will work on an entirely different dynamic. The more traditional models ("It's the economy", "You can't beat something with nothing", "incumbency advantage") are more likely to be accurate.

[dead]

Trump didn't run for anything in 2018 so any formula does not apply.

They still haven't figured out that Trump exists outside their formulas.

[thoughtomator]

Hi Rachel, let’s make a cash bet please. How much you got? That much.

[TLI]

perfectly foretold in July 2018 the results of the 2018 midterm election.

1. 2020 is not a mid-term election.

2. The date would need to be July 2020. It is not July 2020.

3. This is from "The Oregonian" but of course there is no bias in the reporting, right?

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