I don’t think that Iran (the regime) will put up with the status quo because their oil exports are purportedly way down and that of course destabilizes their economy and regime.
The regime knows that as individuals they are in a “no way out” situation. I know a lot of people think that “Iran” is crazy, but we are dealing with the regime. Now the regime is crazy in the sense that they deprive their citizens of basic civil rights and force them to submit to Islam under penalty of law.
But as individuals that are trying to stay in power and they know are cornered. They need to maintain their power as a condition of their personal survival. So, what do you think they will do? Surrender themselves and be tried by a court in the Hague (like Milosevic)? Quietly retire in another country where they will likely be hunted down and likely not protected because they are wanted dead or alive?
You know, it’s not like the North pardoning General Lee at the end of CW 1.
I think it’s also worth adding that Russia doesn’t want a neutral of pro-Western regime in Iran. So expect resistance on that front.
Their export are down from 2.5mil BBL per day to 400k BBL per day. Many of their businesses and rich persons have been cut off from the international banking system, and there is very little, if any, outside investment.
They are in a certain death spiral.
Iran is acting RATIONALLY. Hoping they do not cross the line of war with the US.
They are turning up the heat in the Gulf in the hope that the international community will successfully pressure the US to LET UP.
“...Russia doesn’t want a neutral of pro-Western regime in Iran.”
Russia still hasn’t come fully awake to the nature of the “if ya can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em” reality that initiated when The Wall came down in Berlin.
Like it or lump it; Russia is more “western” than they think, and can only benefit by becoming even more so, and assimilating as a nation into that identity, and the economic trappings associated with it. Russia staving off “the west” is only self-harm on a national level. They just can’t admit it.