Once again, you give a nice lesson in condescension. No thanks, though.
I don’t listen to con men on the radio or anywhere else. I have made a serious study of gold price fluctuations since the early 80s. And, while I don’t FULLY get all the varying strands of causation, I do have a feel for it. I have put my money where my mouth is and have done well. It has afforded a lower-middle class guy to retire very comfortably; and for that I am grateful to God, most especially.
My main interest in physical is for the SHTF aftermath, when nobody’s currency will be trusted.
Meanwhile, I kick back, with my finite, inferior understanding of gold prices, which lately have been largely moved by big central bank game-playing (the Chinese, Russians, Saudis and others) where they manage to go long, chase the price up $100, go short, and drive the price down $100; rinse and repeat, over the past 10 years or so. I think they use proxies, oligarchs. It’s been uncanny.
I am excited by what may be a breakout.
Look, I’m sorry if I “mansplained” to you. But when you say stuff that is plainly counter-factual, like that gold flattens before a recession or deny that gold is a recession hedge, I can only presume you’ve never looked at a historical chart of the price of gold.
When the cyclical back and forth starts getting noticed outside of large investors they will short-circuit that. The same thing was going on in currencies for two years back in Obama’s second term, it was really the only decent return out there for small fry such as myself. Dollar takes off, making Euro, Franc or Yen look like a bargain, go into one of those then wait six months for the downward dollar spike. It went on like clockwork then it didn’t.
This PM reaction says to me that the market believes the US economy is strong, otherwise holding steady on rates would have received a different reaction. Gold and other PM’s spiking is either due to inflationary fears or economic instability due to other factors.
I don’t think you’re seeing a “breakout” therefore, and won’t until there is economic trouble in the US. We’re not there, not now.