What's that all about?
It’s all about the Fed manipulating rates at the short end.
This Dynamic Yield Curve animation makes it clear to see.
And yet the markets have been pushing down U.S. Treasury rates — the benchmark for many consumer and business loans in the U.S. — even while the Fed was raising its own discount rate.
Actually, the Prime Rate moves in lock step with the Fed’s funds rate.
The bond market is convinced a recession is coming, because of the end of the y/y tax and spend stimulus from the Trump tax cuts and spending boom. The stock market is bullish though because they’re convinced the Fed is going to lower rates in the coming months, and they’re very likely right about that.