Posted on 06/19/2019 9:50:22 AM PDT by Kaslin
Second only to the politicians themselves.
The more discredited polls become, the easier it becomes to eliminate phony politicians who rely on them. They’ll have to find some other phony trick to rely on.
That's fine and dandy, but the lazy inept media relies on fake polls to support their fake news and leftist indoctrination -
‘Closer to election day they are better.’
true; I knew the election was up for grabs when RCP showed Clinton garnering 273 EV’s a week out from the election...compared to the 300 plus she had throughout the campaign...
“I wonder if a pollster could use crowd turn out at campaign rallies as a measure other than robo calls.”
I think you have hit on a huge predictor. But the problem for pollers is they won’t get paid much for taking a picture and estimating a crowd. Biden has trouble filling three rows of tables at the VFW while Trump can fill stadiums with standing room only. (You’re the thread winner.)
It presents an interesting mathematical challenge. I suspect that if it could be “figured out” that the polling agent would be FAR more accurate.
But how to turn into a profitable enterprise? That level of analysis cant be cheap.
Poll: Gillum leads DeSantis by 7 points in Florida governor race
Estimating crowd size is a settled science. (Probably the only thing you can write about science being “settled.) Making money out of it...well, not so much. Settled, I mean.
Yup... voter fraud is the only threat to Trumps re-election. Those found guilty of voter fraud, should go to prison for a long time.
President Trump has this great ability to make his haters irrelevant!
His “surprise victory” in 2016 proved the pollsters were irrelevant and were BSers as much as the left wingers and faux conservatives on ABCNNBCBS who hate him 24/7.
They will be totally irrelevant before he is reelected in 2020!
Polling companies make money on repeat customers. The entire corporate media is hard core cultural marxist. When political season comes around, the polling companies are incentivized to give their customers the answers they desire to push the narrative of selecting who they want to run the country. Most of these companies also probably reside in the same coastal urban zones and are buddies with the corporate media which just amplifies their confirmation bias, after all Hillary was a +90% slam-dunk winner .. and they actually believed the +90% number and were celebrating it until the returns began coming in.
Crowd size yes. But how many are supporters vs protesters vs news vs cops?
How do you normalize the data set when one candidate goes to 100 venues and draws 100 people each and a different candidate goes to 50 venues and draws 200 people each?
Do you normalize for a hot / rainy / snow day?
Do you normalize for time of day? Day of week?
And the more they do, the more they’ll end up with egg on their face. It’s no longer working.
Is this a trick question?
That's all you need to hear right there.
As someone said once, I think correctly, that polls are not there to measure opinions, but to drive them.
Recent polls demonstrate this.
Of course not.
No. Liberals are
When polls are discussed, I mute the TV, regardless if it’s Fox, CBN, or otherwise.
A fake excuse from the fake news.
The truth is:
1. A sizable portion of the electorate refuses outright to be polled at all.
And 2. A small but not inconsequential portion of the remaining electorate intentionally lies when polled.
Thus polls have become worthless.
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