Many years ago I taught statistics, including survey sampling, at the University of Washington.
The author’s analysis is a bit simplified, but correct.
Thanks for posting.
Most national polls are designed to skew toward the demonRATs, and they do it out in the open.
If you poll the country based on population, kalifornikator will get 11% of the calls.
The poll is going to lean demonRAT before the first call is made. The same with NY or IL.
Because there are so many heavily populated states that are blue, a national poll can not be fair or predictive.
The thing about polls like this is, they are so ridiculous on their face, you don’t even have to look at the internals to know they are a fustercluck.
When you do, you just get what you already know confirmed.
Simple reality is, short of a complete economic meltdown prior to November 2020, Trump is going to win re-election handily... He will outperform his 2016 numbers in every state. He will win every state he took in 2016, and will likely win most, if not every state he lost, but got 45% or higher in.
Any state he got 40% of more in in 2016 will be in play, and Trump, not being a Carl Rove type coward, will indeed fight for them and probably get a few of those as well.
There is ZERO path, short of an economic meltdown, for any D to win the White House in 2020....
That’s the reality. Anyone telling you otherwise, is either wholesale ignorant of how and why Trump won in 16, or flat out lying to you. Polls claiming and D is winning this thing is dubious from the start, and any one showing them up by 10 points if flat out intentionally lying to you.
The old saying: “Figures lie, and liars figure”!