It will be close. There are about 15 rinos willing to pull the trigger as soon as there is a vote.
But there are also several democrats from hard red states where Trump is very popular for who voting for removal would be political suicide, Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Doug Jones of Alabama come to mind....
It won’t be close. A Senate vote to remove will be taken FAR more seriously than a House vote to impeach.
Impeachment is nothing but an accusation by political adversaries - the case can be extremely weak and nothing need be proven, since there are no real consequences.
By contrast, a vote to remove by the Senate is of the utmost seriousness because the consequences are dire. Since removal of an elected President essentially constitutes the reversal of an election, even Trump-hating Democrat Senators will have to find the case for obstruction very compelling in order to justify a vote for removal.
The impeachment proceedings in the the House will be an embarrassment - and will reveal to the public just how politically motivated and baseless the charges are. As a result, I suspect that by the time the matter is taken up by the Senate, public sentiment will have shifted significantly in favor of the President.
Just how weak is their case? They have the President saying a couple times that he wanted the investigation to end - exploring what his options were for ending it - and they are calling that obstruction. That is an absurdly weak argument.
Don’t expect the removal effort to go anywhere in the Senate - the case against President Trump is FAR too weak.