[Leaning Right]

Let’s suppose for a moment that there is a US-China war, and China wins. What does China gain? All I can think of is this:

1. China takes Taiwan.
2. China cements its claim to the South China Sea.
3. China gets to bully its smaller neighbors (Vietnam, etc.)

But here’s what else will happen:

1. Japan will develop nuclear weapons.
2. South Korea will develop nuclear weapons.
3. The US will seize the Treasury notes China holds.
4. The US will stop all trade with China.
5. The NATO and SEATO nations stop all trade with China.

So it seems to me that the downside for China - even if it wins - is more than the upside. So why would China get involved in a war with the US? Am I missing something?

[ronnie raygun]

Looks like all china will get is her dependent neighbors. Its like fighting for a people who will be your future dependents and rely on you for their sustenance. Are there natural resources worth the effort?

[Travis McGee]

The war will happen during a global depression when the US-Sino trade has already collapsed.

Think: When did Japan attack?

[marktwain]

1. Japan will develop nuclear weapons. 2. South Korea will develop nuclear weapons. 3. The US will seize the Treasury notes China holds. 4. The US will stop all trade with China. 5. The NATO and SEATO nations stop all trade with China.

If China wins, why would they allow these things to happen?

They would have won, and become the sole superpower in the world.

[nathanbedford]

Am I missing something?

Maybe, maybe we should carefully factor in the breathtaking speed of transformation being wrought by technology. What's the formula, capacity doubles every 18 months? But that hardly tells the whole story of the speed of application of technology to changing everything we know about the world.

The Chinese are in a position to dominate a whole new battlescape in a time frame that might be much shorter than would make us comfortable to contemplate. They are producing about eight times as many STEM graduates as we are. We like to think that we have an unsurmountable lead in innovation but that might not be true as the Chinese are proving more and more capable of excellence in new fields.

So the threat from the Chinese is much less likely to be a military confrontation leading to nuclear war but rather a combination of developments, or perhaps envelopments, which first isolate America and then paralyze its will. We are very likely to lose the economic war with China, we are likely to lose a technological war with China, we are likely to lose all our allies and find them neutral or associated with China, we are very likely to lose strategic spots around the globe such as described by Adm. Mahon -in fact we already are seeing this phenomenon, we are likely to see pusillanimous leftists in America find 1000 reasons why we should make love not war.

The danger is real, it is the timeline that is unknown, but it must be reckoned in understanding of the pace of technological change. The danger is internal as well is Sino. The more powerful China gets, the more the left in America deserts.

[central_va]

The US will stop all trade with China.—> Worth the war right there.

[Reily]

Does SEATO still exist?

[henkster]

They dont want to go to war. But they want us to know they can.