Trump can win a second term and bring in some Congressional districts with him.
As for the border barrier, he is imo not communicating effectively. He has mentioned these issues before such as during the campaign and at the SOTU but imo he needs to presss these reasons every time he speaks about it. I’ve mentioned that in part this is personal, he lost his brother to substance abuse and drugs like fentanyl are pouring across the border causing thousands of deaths. Amnesty Int’l report that thousands of kids have been kidnapped and some 60% of women sexually assaulted while making the trek from central and south America to the USA. People are indentured (enslaved, some in the sex trade) to pay the cost of entering to human smugglers. In addition to the potential for enemy combatants and saboteurs to enter the country he does mention hardened criminals like MS-13. But by emphasizing the human tragedy - drug deaths, kidnapping, sexual assault - he puts the left on the defensive. They come because they think they can get in, and along the way they are victimized. With a barrier making it harder to get in, fewer people will be victimized. Trump has the moral high ground yet he lets people like Pelosi preach about morality. It is immoral to continue to allow rape, assaults, slavery, kidnapping, and thousands of deaths to go without a response.
There are other reasons he could win. I think of Reagan in 1984 saying “you don’t change horses midstream” when you realize he will be likely to have advanced talks on North Korea as well as Israeli-Arab peace fronts by the time the elections roll around. He has renegotiated NAFTA and will have a new China trade deal. Loathe though the left is to give him credit for anything he will be able to make a great case that progress on these fronts should not be interrupted in 2020 with a change in leadership.
It remains to be seen if any of the real “colluders” in the 2016 election will face consequences for their actions, but should the DOJ or a Special Prosecutor get the indictments flowing and the “Russia” story exposed and turned on its head, he will further have a case to make about the nature of his opposition and the poor state of American news outlets.
We don’t know who the Dem challenger will be but they are likely to have a 1972 (and 2016) type fracas between the far left and the corporate left. Bernie is running and that will push other candidates to the left as well, and those who don’t move left will have a harder time contrasting themselves with Trump because in a bird’s eye view of things opposing the wall is a small issue.
In the SOTU he laid down the gauntlet on socialist ideology. Whether he and his surrogates can effectively communicate the foolishness of ideas like free healthcare for all and free college for all is an open question. These ideas should not have much traction as it is for we already know the outcome - higher costs, rationing, debt and more taxation, plus lower quality outcomes. Just look at rent control as an example: Rent control means less incentive to build new supply and less incentive to rent and maintain properties in tip top shape. In time rent control leads to urban decay and loss of property values. Right now the ease of obtaining student loans is a direct cause of the ever-escalating cost of education; and universities are pushing a lot of ideological nonsense and jacking up their administration vs teaching faculty ratios to ridiculous proportions. Universities have no incentive to economize or improve their product because they have no risk; shoving risk off to the students themselves who are usually not well equipped to make a decision about how much value they will receive for 20-30 years of debt.
These and other issues may be the centerpieces of the 2020 election cycle. It could be an important lesson for the American people, many who have been indoctrinated into some of these outlandish ideas, if the message can get out.
Thank you for an informative comment. For what it’s worth, Frank Luntz appeared on Water’s World and said less than half (of what I don’t know) support the “WALL”, but more than 60% support the wall plus technology. I totally agree that Trump has the moral high ground, at least with people who are rational humans.
I think Bernie has the best shot at winning. He would have won the last primary if the Fix were not in. You comment is worth repeating: “In the SOTU he laid down the gauntlet on socialist ideology. Whether he and his surrogates can effectively communicate the foolishness of ideas like free healthcare for all and free college for all is an open question. These ideas should not have much traction as it is for we already know the outcome - higher costs, rationing, debt and more taxation, plus lower quality outcomes. Just look at rent control as an example: Rent control means less incentive to build new supply and less incentive to rent and maintain properties in tip top shape. In time rent control leads to urban decay and loss of property values. Right now the ease of obtaining student loans is a direct cause of the ever-escalating cost of education; and universities are pushing a lot of ideological nonsense and jacking up their administration vs teaching faculty ratios to ridiculous proportions. Universities have no incentive to economize or improve their product because they have no risk; shoving risk off to the students themselves who are usually not well equipped to make a decision about how much value they will receive for 20-30 years of debt.”