Posted on 02/13/2019 1:21:37 PM PST by Red Badger
A growing number of Californians are contemplating moving the state due to the sky-high cost of living, with sentiment highest among millennials, according to a new study.
Fifty-three percent say they are considering fleeing, representing a jump over the 49 percent a year ago.
The poll conducted by Edelman Intelligence found the chief reason for dissatisfaction isn't wildfires or earthquakes but housing cost and availability.
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LOS ANGELES — A growing number of Californians are contemplating moving from the state — and not due to wildfires or earthquakes but the sky-high cost of living, according to a survey released Wednesday.
The online survey, conducted last month by Edelman Intelligence, found that 53 percent of Californians surveyed are considering fleeing, representing a jump over the 49 percent polled a year ago. The desire to exit the nation's most populous state was highest among millennials, the survey noted.
"California is a great, great place if you're young and ambitious and daddy's paying the rent," said Joel Kotkin, a presidential fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University in Orange, California. "It's similar to New York with the same dynamic, and maybe more of it."
Kotkin, who has researched California demographic and economic trends for decades, said he's astounded when he asks his Chapman students whether they think they'll be in the state in 10 years. "I would say the majority would say 'no,' — and many grew up in California," he said.
"There's no doubt that California's economy, for all of its strengths when it comes to innovation and creating these industries that people want to be part of, is struggling with high costs," said Aaron Terrazas, a senior economist with online real estate site Zillow. "Costs have gotten way ahead of incomes in California, and that's making a lot of people think about whether it's worth the hurdles."
According to Edelman, 63 percent of millennials in the 2019 survey indicated they were considering a move from sunny California. The chief reason for dissatisfaction: housing.
In fact, 60 percent of millennials surveyed cited housing cost and availability when asked in general what reasons would make them leave California. That was slightly higher than the general population (55 percent), although sentiment among renters topped the survey with 65 percent citing housing factors as a reason to leave.
Californians believe housing costs are four times more threatening to the state's economy than high health costs. Residents also consider crime and security as a top-three concern.
Terrazas said millennials in California who are "tired of renting and looking to settle down and buy a home are finding it's often out of reach for them." He said this is especially the case in coastal job centers of the state, whether Los Angeles County or the San Francisco Bay Area.
"California just doesn't strike them as reasonable," the economist said. "The state has consistently seen much faster home value appreciation than most of the country, and the same goes for rent until about two years ago. Rents have begun to slow down, ... although they remain at high levels."
Terrazas said Southern California has high housing costs and on average lower incomes than Northern California. "In some ways, Southern California is in much dire straits," he said.
Even with higher average incomes in Silicon Valley, though, he said homebuyers now must spent about half of their pretax incomes on a monthly mortgage for a median home. The median home in the Silicon Valley market topped $1.2 million at the end of 2018, according to Zillow data.
Statewide, the median home value in California was $547,400 at the end of 2018, while the U.S. median home value was $223,900. By comparison, the median home value in New York state stood at $289,000 and $681,500 in New York City; New Jersey was $324,700.
The Edelman survey found 47 percent of Californians are considering moving out of the state in the next five years. Again, it found the rates among millennials were higher with 55 percent of them contemplating the move. And 57 percent of Californians with kids under 18 also were considering packing up and leaving in the next five years.
Chapman's Kotkin believes the next wave of discontent in California won't necessarily be focused on housing costs but taxes.
"Taxes are a real killer if you're upper middle class and whether you're a younger person trying to buy a house or you just want to be able to spend what you make," said Kotkin. "There's also concern among people looking to retire and having their income taxed into oblivion."
At 12.3 percent, California led the 50 states in 2018 with the highest top marginal tax rate, according to the Federation of Tax Administrators. And that doesn't include an additional 1-percent surcharge for those Californians with incomes of $1 million or more.
"The tax bill made it worse," Kotkin said, pointing out that the federal tax changes means deductions for state, local and property taxes now get capped at $10,000. "State taxes have become a significant factor now. We're getting into a situation where the middle class in California really can't hack it."
Overall, the Edelman survey involved a total of 1,900 California residents and was conducted Jan. 4 to Jan. 20. It said results were weighted to the Census to be representative of the state's adult population.
A report from California's Legislative Analyst's Office last year indicated Texas, Arizona, Oregon and Nevada are popular destinations for relocating Californians. It also found families with kids and those Californians with only a high school education were most likely to flee to lower cost states than college educated residents.
Finally, the survey found more than 60 percent of residents feel that the best days of living in California are behind instead of ahead. And a large number of residents are "ambivalent" toward tech as an engine of prosperity, the survey said.
And isn’t it mandatory in OK that all citizens attend the rattlesnake festival?
My Millenial son and his friends. First hand experience.
Many of them voted for Trump after their original Obama infatuations.
And just watch those Campus Reform interview videos. This feels like a reincarnation of my youth, when my 4 years in college under Carter made me a Republican for life after being well Left in college.
Not these days. This younger generation is more fond of noodling. Catfish are not poisonous.
Many may be military...................
Like gypsies, tramps and thieves, locusts and ‘migrants’......................
Sounds perfect! Why do you want to sell?........................
I think part of the problem is that the millenials are a lost generation. Wages have been stagnant (or dropped) since at least 2000. Many millenials got out of college and never got an actual career job, instead getting stuck in retail and other low-tier, dead-end jobs. This is true even for millenials who didn't major in underwater basketweaving and xir/xer/xyr genderfluid studies. To make things worse, they waste their money on stuff that doesn't last, like travel and food.
Your entire future career wages are tied to what you make when you initially inter the a profession (if you get in at all, nowadays). Millenials were, and will be, way behind the curve because of their failure to start well.
GenX also had this problem but it wasn't as severe, and GenX also was able to buy houses before they became impossible to afford - of course a lot of GenX bought houses they couldn't afford, using idiot loans, and then had a bankruptcy and foreclosure. GenX is more self-reliant and able to change courses, and also more cynical about believing that the government would ever help us or be there for us in retirement. So, we saw that we wouldn't be getting anything from the government and decided to do what we could to provide for ourselves. Millenials "nevertheless persist" in their delusion that the government can give them what they want.
Boomers, of course, and then GenX and Millenials themselves following suit, are the ones who screwed Millenials out of any wage increases. I have sat in conferences with bigwigs as they explain why they are lowering the starting wages, yet again, for new employees, "because we can." In the 1990's starting wage with a Bachelor's was about $30,000 even if you had majored in something dumb. Full health benefits. College was still affordable. 20 years later Millenials were graduating with a Bachelor's (the educational quality is much poorer, though, even with a solid major), and being lucky to make $25,000. No benefits. Massive student loans.
The financial situation of the Millenials is something that all of us are going to have to somehow deal with. I don't see it going away. So far the only solution they have come up with is to use the government's power to steal money away from anyone who has any. This will result in the destruction of the middle class. I think it's already well underway. I don't really see an answer for this lost generation. They're dumb, poor, lack financial sense, lack work ethic, and lack morals. They're greedy, always with an eye on what other people have. How do you fix all of that?
Its a sudden (past 6 months or so) onslaught and there is no military base nearby.
Look on the bright side: They may be CONSERVATIVE REFUGEES!....................
I hope so but evidence is inconclusive so far.
I am bringing them:
As a lifelong conservative, I have never voted Democrat, I was mocked (and even assaulted) from fourth grade and on for being one, I am an ordained minister, I have never been drunk, I have never used drugs.
I have fought the lonely good fight, and I am worn out from it.
I assert that I am more genuinely conservative than 90% of Texas - and 100% of Austin.
Not by me.
California had many staunch conservatives like me. How do you suppose Nixon and Reagan got elected?
Thank (Blame) Ronald Reagan and his abominable Amnesty.
There is a mental disconnect between their voting habits and their living environment.
They don’t see a connection.............................
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I read an LA TIMES column on this issue...A Dem activist was interviewed. She moved to Nevada because of lower cost of living...Did she become a Republican? No...In Nevada, she works for some pro-abortion group...
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