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To: FLT-bird
If Britain leaves with no deal then EVERYONE gets hurt, but the Brits the most as two thirds of their business is with the EU. And most of their manufacturing relies on cross-country supply chains.

The EU is perfectly willing to have a trade deal with the UK, but if the UK wants something like Norway or Switzerland has, then it needs to allow freedom of goods, services, capital and EU citizens. If they want something else then they need to negotiate the terms just like anybody else

The UK under WTO terms will be just like everybody else. They will not "do fine" - but they won't collapse economically yet. They will have a hit of anything from 2% to 4% GDP in the 2 year horizon. After that, it all depends on how well their government manages it

But that's the crux - May has NOT managed anything so far, so expecting her to manage the no-deal Brexit is a larf

15 posted on 02/12/2019 3:01:59 AM PST by Cronos (Obama's dislike of Assad is not based on his brutality but that he isn't a jihadi Moslem)
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To: Cronos
Cronos: If Britain leaves with no deal then EVERYONE gets hurt, but the Brits the most as two thirds of their business is with the EU. And most of their manufacturing relies on cross-country supply chains. The EU is perfectly willing to have a trade deal with the UK, but if the UK wants something like Norway or Switzerland has, then it needs to allow freedom of goods, services, capital and EU citizens. If they want something else then they need to negotiate the terms just like anybody else The UK under WTO terms will be just like everybody else. They will not "do fine" - but they won't collapse economically yet. They will have a hit of anything from 2% to 4% GDP in the 2 year horizon. After that, it all depends on how well their government manages it But that's the crux - May has NOT managed anything so far, so expecting her to manage the no-deal Brexit is a larf.

Two thirds of current trade is with the EU. Those percentages were radically different before Britain joined the EU and could well shift back to other markets once Britain leaves. Its not like Britain was a poor country prior to joining the then European Community. I agree that May has done nothing except roll over or Brussels and try to ram down the throats of the British people a worse arrangement than they had before Brexit. That failed. Britain obviously needs to move in a different direction. I agree that a bridge will be needed to buy Britain a little time to negotiate new trade arrangements. I'd like to see the US offer them a deal to do just that.

19 posted on 02/12/2019 3:14:59 AM PST by FLT-bird
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