Theresa May loses Brexit deal vote by majority of 230

The Guardian ^ | 1/15/19 | Heather Stewart

[Blue House Sue]

Theresa May has sustained the heaviest parliamentary defeat of any British prime minister in the democratic era after MPs rejected her Brexit deal by a resounding majority of 230.

Brexit-supporting Conservatives joined with opposition parties and the Democratic Unionist party to trounce the government in the “meaningful vote”, which the prime minister delayed before Christmas in the vain hope of winning over waverers.

[tomkat]

Thanks for the pointer to Carlin .. know nothing of him but have downloaded a couple of the free episodes on his page and will likely spend this weekend’s impending snowstorm checking them out.

Am especially keen to listen to the interview with James Burke, his ‘Connections’ series having been one of my all time favorite TV shows.

[tomkat]

it baffles me why people who don't know anything post junk when accurate info is so easy to find...

Roger that !

[RushIsMyTeddyBear]

Bkmrk.

[nathanbedford]

My take:

1. Britain must now decide whether to cruise to a clean Brixet or conduct another referendum.

2. If a new referendum is conducted, Britain will probably vote to remain.

3. Jeremy Corbin has filed his no-confidence motion because he has the votes to win no-confidence thus forcing Britain into a general election.

4. The Tories must, and no doubt will, promptly dismiss Theresa May in a palace coup just like they dismissed Margaret Thatcher, thus hoping to avoid, or otherwise win, a vote of no-confidence under a new prime minister.

5. The political establishment left wants to remain for ideological and for power reasons. A good part of the Tory party wants to remain as well. Only Theresa May's honorable commitment against many of her own party to deny a second referendum because it is an unconscionable denial of democracy, stands between labor under Jeremy Corbin forcing a second referendum.

6. Hence, the Tories have a problem in taking a new prime minister, do they pick an individual who will not consent to a second referendum and force a clean Brixet, or will that individual submit to a new referendum which will likely prove a victory for the "remainders?"

7. These are fracture questions which will likely split the conservative coalition yet it is necessary to preserve that coalition against Corbin if there is any chance of a Brixet.

The moral of the story:

Theresa May tried to be all things to every man and succeeded only in enraging all men. She negotiated a Brixet in name only and instead tethered Britain forever in a subordinate position to Brussels, the very opposite of the will of the people expressed in the referendum. She has lost the base of her party and quite properly so.

Therein lies the moral of this story. Donald Trump is well aware that if he "goes wobbly in the knees" over the wall, (think of it as his own Brixet), he will lose his base and go the way that Theresa May now must now deservedly and inevitably go. I think Trump is way too smart and too courageous to make that mistake but the reality is there are many in his own party who are as perfidious as all those faceless Tories in "perfidious Albion."

[laplata]

You are correct on both points. It’s sad to see what the formerly “Great” Britain has become.

[Palio di Siena]

I’m like you, what do I know.
But snivelers gotta snivel.
So they will.
I’m hoping for a hard Brexit however.

[Trump Girl Kit Cat]

It’s about time you returned to us VERY HAPPY you are well !!!!!

[pepsi_junkie]

The EU overplayed their ha

They knew the UK government didn’t want Brexit and so would be accommodating of a deal favorable to the EU. But they made it “Iranian nuclear deal” level of lopsided.

The issue for them is that the UK is the #2 contributor to the second highest contributor to the EU. In a hard Brexit the EU will suddenly have 9% less money. That’s a problem for them which they could have mitigated with a fair deal but tried to force the UK to keep paying instead. Whoops.

Of course there will now be panic and a call to either cancel or delay the Brexit. Let’s hope the UK govt doesn’t give in to the temptation.

[nathanbedford]

I love listening to Dan Carlin, he has got a great voice and he has wonderful powers of description. But please do not mistake the man, he is a leftist.

[The Westerner]

What a well thought out summary of what is happening in Britain.

Excellent analysis of Trump’s own stumbling block. I agree he knows this is a decisive battle for his chance of reelection. He has the fortitude to stand strong. However, 2 years ago he faced his Rep. “allies” in Congess, he found out he was on his own. Still, he found a path around the anti-small gov., pro-Federal bureaucracy R’s. Curious to watch his strategy play out over the next 5-6 months with the weakened House and a Senate with too many weak Rs.

[Tennessee Nana]

New potatoes and peas and gravy...

:)

yes well that’s a traditional NZ Christmas Dinner that’s meal of the past for most NZers now...

[nathanbedford]

You are very kind.

At my age I can only say it is not an idle matter to be well so I am happy as you are and I will be even more happy if you too are well.

[RushIsMyTeddyBear]

It’s a shame.

[naturalman1975]

Honestly, at this point I’m not sure what to say. That’s why I haven’t been active in these discussions. I have a really great knowledge of British constitutional law and history but what is happening now is so unprecedented in many ways, I don’t feel all that confident in making any predictions, or analysis.

I disagree with a lot of people here that May has somehow sabotaged Brexit deliberately. Yes, she was a Remainer, but I honestly think she has, as Prime Minister, tried to deliver the best deal she could come up with given the number of different things she’s had to try and balance and she’s failed. She’s responsible for that - but I have to say, my real anger such as it is is directed at people like Michael Gove and Boris Johnson who wouldn’t stand up to run for Prime Minister when Cameron resigned. When the strongest supporters of Brexit won’t even try take the top job, it’s not surprising that the Conservatives wound up lead by somebody who wasn’t capable of delivering a good outcome.

I hope Brexit proceeds - no deal looks like the most likely way that’s going to happen now - but I can see it being stopped at this point, which I would have thought virtually impossible two years ago. Part of the reason for that is the baffling decision by the Court that Britain can more unilaterally stop the Article 50 process - that seems utterly at odds with the wording of Article 50 that all EU nations have signed - but that is what the court has ruled, and there’s basically no appeal (which sums up so much of why I don’t like the idea of the UK being in the EU - a court that can simply ignore exactly what is written within the ‘constitutional documents’ of the organisation of which it is part is one of the biggest problems I have with the EU).

[livius]

Interesting and probably 100% correct analysis. It’s true that one cannot be all things to all men, and anybody who has ever tried to do that has found themselves face down in the dust after having been trampled over by the feet of all men.

Her position was never clear. Trump’s immediate goal (the wall) is clear but th overall project is not, and while people support him on the wall, obviously an efficient and cost-effective wall, he can’t get the momentum going because there’s nothing beyond that and the full project isn’t clear.

Personally, I think he’s got to come out publicly in favor of legal immigration, because it is well known that he’s privately in favor of it.

He should vastly expand the quotas for Europeans (who are seriously discriminated against) and make deals with Latin American countries for temporary work permits. Of course, the unions, the primary sponsors of the Dem Party, hate that idea, but he could hold the Dems to account for opposing this and say that they were “racist” which of course they are.

[bert]

The EU problem is President Donald Trump

He can make Brexit pleasant for the UK and create problems for the EU they do not want.

The UK does not exist in a trade vacuum

[HenpeckedCon]

Hitler was pissed after Munich, he wanted to try out the Wehrmacht and he didn’t expect Britain to agree to his demands.
___________________________________________________________

The greatest single catastrophe in the history of the world. The Third Reich would have been defeated in short order if Hitler had attached Czechoslovakia. The French army could have waltzed to Berlin.

[bert]

He should make an example of Honduras and send in the Marines to stop the invaders. While there the Marines must make way for the military government to be installed to clean out the corruption.

National Security demands the invasion of Honduras.

(and total destruction of the Mexican cartels. The fig leaf of mexican soverignty must be dropped long enough to kill the drug types)

[Trump Girl Kit Cat]

I am indeed well also, more so now that you are back conversing with us!!! I was overjoyed the Brits decided to vote for Brexit, HOWEVER you are indeed correct we are going through the same thing in this country!!!! Trump was elected primarily for the wall, immigration being out of control, he is a fighter AND I don’t think he cares politically one way or the other. He made his wealth BEFORE government!!! This man is VERY rough around the edges but he is far more conservative than most who served before him!!! I think many of us who supported him have been very surprised !!!! We accept the rough edges and for the most part like them because it makes most MSM heads explode!!!
Trump has always been just a regular guy who enjoyed being down ON construction sites rather than at cocktail parties! He speaks just as he does on construction sites and he made it big, I think middle America loves him because of this!!! I hope he likes the job, it has been more than rough, and he certainly doesn’t need the insane grief he gets!!!

[nathanbedford]

I fear the Trump's emphasis on "the wall" as a matter of national security is motivated as a rationale to invoke presidential powers to transfer monies and simply build the wall. This is all well and good as far as it goes.

You make the point that Trump also should make clear his approval of legal immigration. Strange as this may sound, I am not very much in favor right now of legal immigration because I believe we already have a nearly indigestible quantity of foreigners within the culture. When I was born there were 140 million Americans and today we are somewhere in the vicinity of 320 million Americans.

But beyond that daunting statistic, there is a very important argument in favor of the wall which broadens the scope of Trump's policy to a pocketbook issue for all Americans, the same pocketbook issue which won him the election in the swing Rust Belt states. Every immigrant, whether legal or illegal, whether high-tech H1B or low tech illiterate, cost Americans jobs, drives down wages, and eviscerates the middle class.

Trump could go to the Teamsters union which actually has conservative instincts and publicly makes the case that in an age when artificial intelligence is threatening to actually eliminate the very occupation of driving a truck, one important protection to the Teamsters is to stop the flow of illegal and even legal immigrants eager to take their diminishing jobs. I am not unaware of the need to pretend to be in favor of legal immigration in order to appease the media establishment as much as it can be appeased but I think one has to break a few eggs to make an omelette.

If Trump's idea is to end this impasse over building the wall which shuts down the government by invoking the national security powers contained in so many statutes, then I understand why the emphasis now is on the security and drug related issues connected to the border. But Trump might also say that the courts have so rigged the system that it is impossible, no matter how much technology or how high the wall, to stop the flow of immigrants because they have merely to declare that they seek asylum whereupon they must be released into society where they disappear. Trump can make this case just as he makes the case to the Teamsters.

I am trying to say that pocketbook issues have always been issues most likely to influence voters. Beyond the security issue, I believe the Trump should also emphasize the pocketbook issues more than has been done.