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A Forest of Bare Branches
Steyn Online ^
| 5 Jan 2019
| Mrk Steyn
Posted on 01/06/2019 8:49:44 AM PST by Rummyfan
In 2006 I wrote an international bestseller about demography. Which is harder to do than you might think. But it was leavened with Dean Martin gags and whatnot. Nevertheless, it made some big-picture points:
Will China be the hyperpower of the 21st century? Answer: No. Its population will get old before it's got rich.
That's a cute line. I've been using it since the dawn of the millennium and I've been interested to watch it catch on. A few years back, I had the pleasure of hearing Henry Kissinger use it: It sounds so much more geopolitically persuasive in his gravelly voice. And the point is a serious one: Japan's demographic crisis began after they'd got rich, which is the better way to arrange things. In China, alas, the statistics are catching up with Steynian doom-mongering:
China's population shrank last year for the first time in 70 years, experts said, warning of a "demographic crisis" that puts pressure on the country's slowing economy...
The number of live births nationwide in 2018 fell by 2.5 million year-on-year, contrary to a predicted increase of 790,000 births, according to analysis by U.S.-based academic Yi Fuxian.
(Excerpt) Read more at steynonline.com ...
TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: duplicate; steyn
1
posted on
01/06/2019 8:49:44 AM PST
by
Rummyfan
To: All
China's population shrank last year for the first time in 70 years, experts said, warning of a "demographic crisis" that puts pressure on the country's slowing economy... So all populations worldwide are shrinking, except "the browns"? Hmm...
2
posted on
01/06/2019 8:54:38 AM PST
by
rockrr
( Everything is different now...)
To: rockrr
Fertility rate per woman (1-2) isn't really replacement:
3
posted on
01/06/2019 9:05:54 AM PST
by
RightGeek
(FUBO and the donkey you rode in on)
To: rockrr
And we are all to quick to jump in and support them, financially and offer them asylum. Slit my wrists now!
To: Rummyfan
5
posted on
01/06/2019 9:15:25 AM PST
by
the_daug
To: the_daug
6
posted on
01/06/2019 9:18:14 AM PST
by
the_daug
To: Rummyfan
China is leading the way on robotization when they have a surplus of labor, wonder why?
7
posted on
01/06/2019 9:21:52 AM PST
by
itsahoot
(Welcome to the New USA where Islam is a religion of peace and Christianity is a mental disorder.)
To: rockrr
So all populations worldwide are shrinking, except "the browns"? Hmm...
Even them, as income levels rise - note that while India's birth rate is still above the replacement rate, this growth is driven entirely by it's poor northern states (not coincidentally, this is where most of India's Muslims are).
The southern Indian states, which are better educated, richer and home to a growing tech sector, have birth rates below the replacement rate, and their populations are shrinking.
Want to solve the population problem? Encourage capitalism, better education and wealth creation - they don't offer the government control liberals want, but they actually work.
To: Rummyfan
Americas bare branches...
9
posted on
01/06/2019 9:31:50 AM PST
by
polymuser
(It is terrible to contemplate how few politicians are hanged today. - Chesterton)
To: polymuser
10
posted on
01/06/2019 10:41:39 AM PST
by
Rummyfan
(In any war between the civilized man and the savage, support the civilized man. Support Israel.)
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