A Forest of Bare Branches

Steyn Online ^ | 5 Jan 2019 | Mrk Steyn

[Rummyfan]

In 2006 I wrote an international bestseller about demography. Which is harder to do than you might think. But it was leavened with Dean Martin gags and whatnot. Nevertheless, it made some big-picture points:

Will China be the hyperpower of the 21st century? Answer: No. Its population will get old before it's got rich.

That's a cute line. I've been using it since the dawn of the millennium and I've been interested to watch it catch on. A few years back, I had the pleasure of hearing Henry Kissinger use it: It sounds so much more geopolitically persuasive in his gravelly voice. And the point is a serious one: Japan's demographic crisis began after they'd got rich, which is the better way to arrange things. In China, alas, the statistics are catching up with Steynian doom-mongering:

China's population shrank last year for the first time in 70 years, experts said, warning of a "demographic crisis" that puts pressure on the country's slowing economy...

The number of live births nationwide in 2018 fell by 2.5 million year-on-year, contrary to a predicted increase of 790,000 births, according to analysis by U.S.-based academic Yi Fuxian.

[rockrr]

China's population shrank last year for the first time in 70 years, experts said, warning of a "demographic crisis" that puts pressure on the country's slowing economy...

So all populations worldwide are shrinking, except "the browns"? Hmm...

[RightGeek]

Fertility rate per woman (1-2) isn't really replacement:

[ronnie raygun]

And we are all to quick to jump in and support them, financially and offer them asylum. Slit my wrists now!

[the_daug]

Hmmm Rooting arrows!

[the_daug]

rotting for rooting

[itsahoot]

China is leading the way on robotization when they have a surplus of labor, wonder why?

[AnotherUnixGeek]

So all populations worldwide are shrinking, except "the browns"? Hmm...

Even them, as income levels rise - note that while India's birth rate is still above the replacement rate, this growth is driven entirely by it's poor northern states (not coincidentally, this is where most of India's Muslims are).

The southern Indian states, which are better educated, richer and home to a growing tech sector, have birth rates below the replacement rate, and their populations are shrinking.

Want to solve the population problem? Encourage capitalism, better education and wealth creation - they don't offer the government control liberals want, but they actually work.

[polymuser]

America’s bare branches...

[Rummyfan]

Ugh....