>>>I am NOT a stock market expert, but it seems (as Tim Anderson on Twitter argues) there is a major disconnect between the “economy” and the stock market.
An important thing to keep in mind is that about 45% of revenue for S&P 500 companies comes from foreign sales. When we had synchronized global growth from 2017 into 1H18, that spurred the growth in the index. Now we have slowing in some global markets and the indices reflect that. Obviously, the consumer economy is doing well.
Most US recessions are triggered by excesses in the housing market. In this recovery, residential investment remains well below historic trends, so it is unlikely to drive a recession. I anticipate any recession will be more corporate focused and fairly shallow. Some corners of the corporate market are overleveraged and will come under pressure with slower US growth combined with slow global growth.
Thanks. Yes, good observations.