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The U.S. Yield Curve Inverted. Time To Worry About a Recession?
Seeking Alpha ^ | 12/09/2018 | By Erin Bigley and Scott Krauthamer

Posted on 12/10/2018 8:31:55 AM PST by SeekAndFind

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1 posted on 12/10/2018 8:31:55 AM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Buy low, sell high. The market got high, and people are selling.


2 posted on 12/10/2018 8:33:18 AM PST by aimhigh (1 John 3:23 "And THIS is His commandment . . . ")
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To: SeekAndFind

They didn’t worry about a recession during Obama’s 8 years.

(which SHOULD be called “The Great Recession”)


3 posted on 12/10/2018 8:34:10 AM PST by Mr. K (No consequence of repealing Obamacare is worse than Obamacare itself.)
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To: SeekAndFind

I owned my own home in Seattle until 1997. I then rented and continued to rent until I left in 2011. The interesting thing is that we paid VERY low rent while people paid sky high mortgages as prices went up.

One of the homes we rented was just two blocks away from Paul Allen on Mercer Island. I nice tri-level on a beautiful lot (on what is called the “scar” because they bulldozed all the trees when it was built several decades ago). $1400 a month.

Eventually we paid $1650 for a five bedroom on a 1/4 acre professionally landscaped yard a few miles east of Renton in the highlands. The house was valued in Zillo for 330k when we first moved in and when we left that one in 2009 it had peaked at around $525k, but the collapse brought it down to less than $300k.

The price of that home is now $1.3 million.

We’re in another bubble and it’s going to hurt more than the last one.


4 posted on 12/10/2018 8:37:07 AM PST by cuban leaf
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To: SeekAndFind

Democrat control of the congress is the issue.


5 posted on 12/10/2018 8:37:30 AM PST by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn)
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To: SeekAndFind

I got into more trouble from reading “Seeking Alpha” than at any other time. I advise against it.

I guess they could be right sometime.


6 posted on 12/10/2018 8:42:24 AM PST by jeffersondem
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To: central_va

I’m not sure that The Market is actually anything close to rational, but that and the Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes seems like as good a reason as any.


7 posted on 12/10/2018 8:42:30 AM PST by Paladin2
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To: jeffersondem

You don’t have to believe Seeking Alpha’s authors, but the inverted yield curve is REAL and needs to be watched closely.

If it persists, it has predicted every single recession in advance.


8 posted on 12/10/2018 8:44:11 AM PST by SeekAndFind (look at Michigan, it will)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Arthur Wildfire! March; Berosus; Bockscar; cardinal4; ColdOne; ...

Elections have Consequences.


9 posted on 12/10/2018 8:44:41 AM PST by SunkenCiv (and btw -- https://www.gofundme.com/for-rotator-cuff-repair-surgery)
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To: SeekAndFind

The Fed increasing the interest rates multiple times! Purposeful sabotage!


10 posted on 12/10/2018 8:45:28 AM PST by Lopeover (I detest Democrats & never-Trumpers, and feel sad for Q deniers.)
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To: Lopeover

The Fed increasing the interest rates multiple times! Purposeful sabotage!

><

In time for the 2020 elections.


11 posted on 12/10/2018 8:49:11 AM PST by laplata (The Left/Progressives have diseased minds.)
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To: SeekAndFind; All
"You don’t have to believe Seeking Alpha’s authors, but the inverted yield curve is REAL and needs to be watched closely. If it persists, it has predicted every single recession in advance."

Agreed, and when Small Cap Growth leads the Market, that is also a warning sign.

So why is this big bleeping news when we had Porkulus and the Bernake Twist to Seniors got screwed and it made no sense to build a Bond Ladder as they sold Gov't debt with no yield and went long at something just north of 2% and screwed future generations up the ying-yang with putting all the debt long term for starters.

12 posted on 12/10/2018 8:51:39 AM PST by taildragger ("Do you hear the people Singing? Singing the Songs of Angry Men!")
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To: cuban leaf

Someone brought this up around five years ago for Phoenix/Tucson. Maybe around three years after the 2008 bubble burst....some middle-folks were showing up and buying several houses at a time, which the local markets were still 40-to-50 percent below what the market of housing was in 2007. It didn’t make a lot of sense, but if you had cash in your hand and just wanted to wait this out....then maybe it made sense.

Well....these were Chinese parties, and they had cash which they didn’t want to bring back into China or admit that they had. In some ways, it was money laundering. No one said the number of houses in this gimmick but I got the impression that at least twenty houses a month were being structured like this and rented out later.

In the rural regions (like Mississippi or Arkansas)....I don’t think there is a bubble existing. But I’d agree...in San Francisco, Seattle, and various metropolitan locations....it’s probably true.

One of the best stories I ever heard was a co-worker who walked into the Orlando market in 1990, and bought a property on some canal area...3-car garage, big pool in the back, and the price was in the 180k range. When he left in 2003....adding a dock and a big upgraded patio area...it was almost 900k that they paid. But it dropped like a rock after 2008.


13 posted on 12/10/2018 9:01:43 AM PST by pepsionice
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To: Paladin2

Wait until Maxie Pad Waters starts to run her mouth.


14 posted on 12/10/2018 9:05:12 AM PST by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn)
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To: SeekAndFind

As soon as the Muller madness comes to an end, market will recover.


15 posted on 12/10/2018 9:18:39 AM PST by Track9 (How hot a fire it will be when each Dem gets their due..)
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To: SeekAndFind

This curve is NOT inverted, and i wish the press and inexperienced analysts would stop feeding on a naive and crass oversimpification. The T bill rate relative to the long T bond is far from inverted. Forget about 2 or 3 vs 5, and focus on 1 vs 10 or 20. And not “yell fire” or sound alarms until Fed Funds come closer to that level

What we have now (or at least in the works) is a HUMPED yield curve, which is not unusual in late cycle markets. Any student of interest rates will confirm this. Its predictive value is far less ominous. If anything it tells us that a recession is possible in several years.

Humped yield curves have been “transitional” to inverted curves, so it’s not unrealistic to put out the yellow flags. But it’s equally important to remember what Lalso Beryini’s historical research clearly shows about the run-up in risk asset prices during this phase of a long cycle.

Institutional investors (e.g. pensions and insurance companies) will buy the 30 year bond to lock in duration if they smell a serious recession risk, so the 10 vs 30 T-bond segment will have far more predictive value if it inverts more than something like 25-35 bps.That will signal that the big money has moved to a Crisis Risk Offset strategy at which point I’d also head for the hills.

And for students of history, see Sidney Homer’s classic work on the History of Interest Rates. Treasury curves in the 1800s were flat, humped and backwardated during many business expansions. That was before the Federal Reserve, historians note, but the point is that a disinflationary world (technology disruption) with relatively low rates of wage inflation can have very different market signals than what we all learned the hard way by our experiences in 2H of the last century.

None of this makes yield curve analysis useless. Schumpeter’s work established the conceptual framework which stands to this day. But let’s use the tool correctly, folks.

Also this past sell off was triggered by program trading which was signaled by a preset factor of an inversion no matter how small. I think it was .2 % not quite sure. That triggers an auto sell of of industrial and financials and again triggering more automate mayhem.

Div and Cap gains to be reinvested at the end of the month.

Revisiting all on 1/1/19


16 posted on 12/10/2018 9:25:36 AM PST by Bell Bouy II
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To: taildragger

It has also predicted a few that didn’t happen.

It will predict correctly eventually, there’s always a recession coming and that’s a good thing.

The alternative is a steady state economy, which is bad all the time.

As booms mature, there is more capital available but less good opportunities as they’ve all been exploited. So too much investment goes into things that aren’t so good, eventually causing a recession. The stock market does a similar dance.


17 posted on 12/10/2018 9:33:06 AM PST by SaxxonWoods (Yes, it's a Cold Civil War with Socialists. They don't have the stomach for a hot one.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Time To Worry About a Recession?


Of course. Trump has to beput down for good before the election.


18 posted on 12/10/2018 9:39:07 AM PST by VTenigma (The Democrat party is the party of the mathematically challenged)
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To: laplata

What else would you use to try to curb inflation? Wage and prices controls?


19 posted on 12/10/2018 9:41:42 AM PST by VietVet876
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To: laplata

The Fed increasing the interest rates multiple times! Purposeful sabotage!

><

In time for the 2020 elections.
....
Yes, and the billionaires want Clinton and can take temporary pain...this is on purpose and in time for Christmas...even the hedge fund managers are willing to tank a bit and their clients will blame Trump...


20 posted on 12/10/2018 9:42:08 AM PST by CincyRichieRich (PDJT, please re-teach the nation that crony capitalism is not capitalism!)
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