The only headwind is the election of a Democrat congress. Year-over-year same-store sales is at a record high. There’s no bubble in housing. The fed is dumping investments back onto the market at a $450 billion-a-year pace, and still raising interest rates while inflation is almost certain to go negative for the 4th quarter.
Inflation going negative is otherwise known as deflation and it’s been the fear since 2008, resulting in effectively a zero interest rate policy, lavish stimulus and unprecendented levels of monetary assistance to financial institutions. Continuing to raise interest rates in the face of deflation is foolhardy in the extreme. I do, however, believe that interest rates need to return to a level where retirees can derive a decent retirement income from stable savings accounts and certificates of deposit. If we’re deflating the time is clearly not right for continued upward adjustment of interest rates. That will have to wait.