How long have the major republics been extant? Now, how long did traditional monarchies last?
Second, would you agree/admit that all major republics are on a one-way street? If so, how long would you give them - including the US? So, if we add the past history to expected longevity, what's the total elapsed time?
Last question: when the crack up comes, what type of system will be proposed/established after the re-set? Universal suffrage allowing once again to permit criminals and incompetents to raid the public treasury?
While the past has historically been a benchmark and general indicator of future development, the situation today is uniquely influenced by the rise of ubiquitous personal computing and connectivity in the First World nations, affecting lesser-developed nations as well. There is increased volatility to a degree that makes ordinary prediction models unreliable. So I’m not going to try to quantify what will happen.
The explosion of data and the inability of gatekeepers to suppress information to the extent they did traditionally contains greater danger—everyone is now a criminal and is vulnerable to personal destruction; but in the social macro, technological information aggregation also drives its own solutions, by forcing a new kind of transparency. Solutions get demanded. Criminals get caught.
I dread the emerging supercomputer systems of the coming decades because I do sense we are close to the end times predicted by scripture, in which everyone will have either a chip or some other tracking tech resulting in no privacy, no individual agency, and worldwide oppression. The most primitive peoples will have more freedom for longer than the people of the highly developed technosocieties.
I suppose every age thinks their is heading into the end times; but there have never before existed the means for worldwide instantaneous communications that exist today. However, scripture also predicts a divine solution to the anticipated period of tribulation. Therefore, I’ve put my energy into scripture study now that retirement affords me the time; clearly, political solutions will be increasingly temporary and unmoored from objective standards.
The U.S. has done quite well. It has had a pretty stable government and incredible increases in prosperity and technology for 240 years.
No monarchy has lasted as long in the modern era.
The House of Saud in its present incarnation in Saudi Arabia only dates back to 1902.
The U.S. government was designed to overcome the problems with democracy of which you speak.
I do not know how much longer it will last.
We may be able to regain some control. If raiding the public treasury brings down the state in the modern era, it has not done so for 70 years. We may be able to avoid it for a considerable time yet.
The problem with monarchies in the modern age is they cannot stamp out opposition and have the benefits of technology at the same time. It was technological advances that brought down the monarchies.
I do not see a solution, but the Chinese are experimenting with a combination of Orwell, Brave New World, meritocracy, and oligopoly.
I wish I had 50 years to see how they and we do.