Yeah when I thought 56 was actually possible I was close to thrilled, then it was quickly bye bye Nevada, 55 ok that’s still good, oh but then Montana was just teasing, friggin Missoula or whatever wasn’t in yet, 54 ok fine, and then as the ridiculous glacial counting (we can find a way to count every vote within a day or less, we built a friggin canal across Panama) in Arizona makes 53 (provided more nonsense doesn’t happen in FL).
And BTW that only stays 53 if win Mississippi. I don’t expect trouble but democrats can win anywhere, there a lot of Blacks in MS, Oprah and Obama will be there, and Mike Espy is not “scary” to White people. We need to put the McDaniels v. Hyde-smith nonsense aside and buckle down and get her elected.
In Senate races I think Kav clearly helped us win where we did and certainly wasn’t what cost us NV or AZ. It may have been the difference in Indiana, I had my doubts about Braun, that was a great win. ND and MO were really gimmees we had no excuse of not winning. Heidi was already pretty much toast before Kav (Thank God Trump was able to recruit Cramer, a lesser candidate likely loses) and McCrapskul has been on borrowed time for 6 years.
Morrisey came closer than I thought he would. I think I can say that Evan Jenkins would have won that. Shame. But gaining that seat is a matter of time.
Rosendale was clearly a weak candidate. Tester tops 50% even after voting no on Kav. Trump just had to put Zinke in a meaningless cabinet post, and the minor “scandals” he’s incurred might damage him if he plans to ever run for office in Montana again. Montana is too damn competitive for the rats. 4 rat Gov wins in a row and Tester (different state but Frank Church 2.0) gets in AGAIN.
Rat fear-mongering on “pre-existing conditions” seemed to be effective. Americans can’t make up their minds about Obamacare (so hard to get rid of an entitlement once it’s there).
2020 forecast isn’t too bad. We SHOULD gain back Alabama. Not many more potential pickups, freshman rat in Michigan could be got with a STRONG candidate, provided Trump is carrying the state again. Cory Gardner is up in what is now a rat state. And rats will go after Susie Collins but I still think she’s favored. I wanted more of cushion out of this year, that’s for sure.
Anyway, nice hearing from you. Take care! I’ll keep you on the ping list.
I have written a proposal for a very specific study of ads/marketing/messaging in four red states where GOP senators lost; where in three of those states the GOP governor won, and ran 8-10 points ahead of the senate candidate; and in the fourth, the R lost to a D while a congressman won (MT).
As I’ve said, the GOP has a serious messaging marketing problem. I think I can get some info, with the help of Baris and a marketing consultant, on why GOP senators are doing so badly when other GOP candidates did well.