the last batch from Maricopa was about even in D and R by registration, and Sinema won by 15 points.
So who are the Republicans crossing over to Sinema? It seems that they are white college-educated women. They are the weakest segment of the white population for Republicans, they swung against Trump in 2016 and even more so this year.
Supposedly there are two batches of mail in ballots in Maricopa being counted. They are still on the first batch which they’ve said is favorable to Sinema. The second batch will be more favorable to McSally. There are still hundreds of thousands to be counted.
Plus factor in Pima which also reported yesterday which they knew would be favorable to Sinema.
The Republicans have about a 10 pt advantage in Maricopa. I think McSally will be fine.