Replies

Iowa Dems always lead with absentee ballots (a la Florida) but then the Reps catch and pass them on election day. The key with the absentee ballot returns is to keep it relatively close as the Reps did in FL and pass them on election day (as the Reps seem to be currently doing). With that said, here are the Absentee Ballot Returns by party for 2016 and 2018 (statewide).

11/08/16:

D: 267,791(41.0%) R: 225,800(34.5%) I: 157,419(24.1%)

11/06/18:

D: 227,487(42.9%) R: 186,983(35.3%) I: 112,303(21.2%)

Of course Iowa 2016 was a smashing success. Trump won handily and carried the state by 9%. No way would we match the 2016 success. Having said that, you can see the Dems have modestly increased by 1.9%, Reps have modestly increased by 0.8% and Indies have decreased by 2.8%.

This sets up well for an R victory in the Governor's race (I know polls show a toss-up) and it definitely bodes well for IA-3 and IA-4. The riskiest seat IA-1 (Blum) also looks to be in good position looking at the ballot returns for his district. He won by 7.4% in 2016 so he has a little leeway. He is marginally worse than 2016 but I still think he wins based on what I'm looking at. This assumes the few Indies don't break hard for the Dems.

1 posted on 11/06/2018 1:07:24 PM PST by Ravi

To: LS; SpeedyInTexas; Methos8; TrumpCoat

2 posted on 11/06/2018 1:07:55 PM PST by Ravi

Hey, I voted this morning... and I wore red! :-)

3 posted on 11/06/2018 1:19:30 PM PST by Pining_4_TX (..Do not be frightened, and do not be dismayed, for the Lord your God is with you.. Joshua 1:9)

Thanks for the information. I’m hopeful Hubbel will go down to defeat.

4 posted on 11/06/2018 1:19:51 PM PST by skams19

To: 1stIowa; 2111USMC; alley cat; Artem55; bigjoesaddle; blindsangamon; Brent Calvert 03969-030; ...

7 posted on 11/06/2018 3:04:06 PM PST by Albion Wilde ("The word 'racist' is used to describe 'every Republican that's winning'" --Donald Trump)

Reps have modestly increased by 0.8%
______________________________________

I’m confused. How can the Republicans have increased if their 2018 #s are less than their 2016 #s?

What am I missing?

8 posted on 11/06/2018 3:04:59 PM PST by Notthereyet (NotThereYet)

wifey and I just got home from voting in BH county. heavy turnout in my precinct...way ahead of 2016 at same time of day..

also saw poll workers turn people away for not having proper ID.

9 posted on 11/06/2018 3:09:23 PM PST by QualityMan (The Adults are back in town)

What is wrong with Iowans? I am so ticked off right now. My rep is now going to be a tax and spend Democrat. Puke! Only 1 of the 4 congress critters in Iowa will be a Republican. I just pray that sleaze Hubbel loses.

14 posted on 11/06/2018 9:11:27 PM PST by Pining_4_TX (..Do not be frightened, and do not be dismayed, for the Lord your God is with you.. Joshua 1:9)

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794