Posted on 11/05/2018 5:05:21 AM PST by 11th_VA
Looking at the poll data on cbs, I question the party breakdown, the education breakdown, and the gender breakdown. All of those numbers are biased toward democrats and their effect is cumulative.
I also have questions about establishing online respondent databases and then sampling those databases. My understanding is that people are contacted by email and asked to participate. Those who participate are self-selected. The original questions have to do with product purchases and other areas of Interest. Then at an election time that database of names has some selected to participate in the election poll. So we really don’t know why those particular persons are selected over others. That’s a real weakness in the online polling process as I see it. It could be random, but it also could be weighted, and we are not told.
Agreed.
See-BS poll
they continue to temper their numbers, lower and lower. I get the sense the Blue Wave is nothing more than media fantasy. The Dems have played this poorly and could be in the minority again....for both the House and the Senate.
Every trend shows R strength and momentum.
Hope and pray so.
The historical reason for losing seat IMO has more to do with the “winning” president and his party not keeping the promises they made during the campaign, IOW buyers remorse. That can not be said of President Trump, that doesn’t mean the middle of the road types(you know what happens when you stand in the middle of the road) who voted for Trump will not vote dim or stay home, and lead to dim take over of house. Just my opinion
If they put the citizenship question on the ballot you will see a major outbreak of insanity. NPR was full bore on it this morning. They’re worried it might scare illegals. Really.
I sincerely hope you are right! I know your analysis is generally spot on. Fingers crossed for tomorrow!
I just want to know when are the pollsters going to sacrifice the goat and read the entrails? We need accurate prognostications!
RATs favorite election tool!! Voter Fraud
Voter Fraud FYI for Doubters
“”It took 5 people to write this article. Usually the more authors, the more BS.””
Well, if it took that many people, you would think they could manage to get the headline accurate. GAIN 210-225 seats means they will pick up 210-225 seats, doesn’t it? Since there are only 193 Republican seats now with 7 vacant, that would be a pretty neat trick.
just said on Varney and company, Fox Business :
if Dems win house, GOP Senate-probably baked in to stock mkt now,
IF GOP wins both-expect nice pop up in mkt
IF Dems win both expect 2,000 point drop-almost 10%
You’re right and I should have kept reading before I posted my reply....
All anyone had to do was ask what in the devil the word
GAIN means!!
ahh, the media bet-hedging IS strong today
This poll has a baked in bias. It was a poll of registered voters and not a poll of likely voters. Likely voters are more republican than registered voters.
This poll is CBS garbage.
Our company has two plants there with hiring slots available.
There is a reason Mexico offered asylum to the Central American Caravan.
Thanks LS. Was curious on your final view of the D to R flip opportunities after the last week of campaigning. Good to see we still see several potential pickups to counter losses.
I can say with pretty good confidence we’ll flip AZ1, MN1, and (I think it’s) MN3. Hughes is close in MN, so we could flip 3 there.
NV3 will be a nail biter. We may be just out of range for NV4.
Baris says FL13 (? Crist) is in trouble and can be flipped. I also hear from people-—but haven’t researched it-—that the numbers look really good in FL7.
I now think IA2 is safe for Ds, and don’t think either Elizabeth Heng or Antonio Sabato, JR. in CA can quite get there.
So at the outside I think we get 5 D-R flips, but with some luck it could be 7.
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