Posted on 11/01/2018 1:58:38 PM PDT by MaxistheBest
Joe Manchin’s vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh looked like a way to guarantee his re-election in November. To the extent that a Kavanaugh effect exists, Manchin seemed to inoculate himself against it. Most thought that Patrick Morrisey’s (no relation) challenge would run out of steam.
Two new polls, however, not only show Morrisey hanging around, but show him gaining on Manchin in the election’s final days. The most recent Metro News poll puts it just a skosh outside the margin of error, with Manchin at only 45%:
The latest version of the MetroNews Dominion Post West Virginia Poll shows Manchin up by 5 percentage points over Morrisey.
The poll shows 45 percent of likely voters favoring Manchin, 40 percent favoring Morrisey, 11 percent for Libertarian Rusty Hollen and 5 percent undecided.
That’s a smaller gap than the last version of the poll in August, which showed Manchin ahead by 8 points. It’s also closer than some other national polls have been showing.
And the 5 points is right at the West Virginia Poll’s margin of error of +/- 4.9 percent.
In other words, it looks a lot like a virtual dead heat, in this poll at least. The most recent poll from Emerson also finds Manchin with only a five-point lead over Morrisey, 47/42, although that poll’s MoE is ±3.2%. Unlike the MetroNews poll, Emerson only puts Hollen’s support at 3% with 8% undecided. Morrisey is carrying independents in the race by a seven-point margin, 45/38, with 16% of independents still undecided. He’ll need to win those away from Manchin at the end.
In neither poll does Manchin get to 50%, and that might be a big red flag. Manchin is not just an incumbent, he’s a well-known and relatively popular figure in West Virginia. He’s more popular than Morrisey in the Emerson poll; Manchin gets a 46/43 favorability rating while his challenger gets a 35/52 rating. And yet Morrisey has steadily outperformed that rating while Manchin, despite all of his advantages, barely keeps pace with his.
Manchin has only gotten to 50% in one poll since August — a 52% reading immediately after the Kavanaugh confirmation vote, in a WSAZ poll. Take that one out of the mix and Manchin’s support hasn’t risen above 47% in any poll since July. That leaves the door open to a big wave of last-minute deciders choosing between giving Chuck Schumer a sometimes-reliable vote or picking the candidate most likely to consistently support Donald Trump’s agenda … and Trump gets a 56/39 favorability rating in the Emerson poll, far above either candidate.
The Kavanaugh effect, in other words, might not have lasted long enough to rescue Manchin. Keep an eye on this race for a potential surprise on Tuesday.
BLUE WAVE EPIC FAIL!!!!
The homunculus, Manchin (Mancini), is a creep and should be returned, by the WV electorate, to his old job as a carnival geek.
The Democrats abandoned West Virginia during the Clinton administration. That’s why Al Gore lost a state that went Republican only 4 times in the 20th century in presidential elections. Manchin is the last of old style Democrats still in West Virginia. West Virginia has now voted Republican 5 straight times to start the 21st century. It’s really not a good state to gauge whether or not there is a blue wave.
Manchin should have switched parties after the 2016 election.
Since MetroNews is having a debate(?) between the two on the radio tonight, my cynical nature leads me to believe this is just a promo to entice people to listen in.
West Virginia might be the worst state in the U.S. to use as a bellweather for national trends. Even though it often votes for Republicans it is highly dysfunctional. On a per-capita basis there are probably more white people on welfare in West Virginia than anywhere else on the planet.
‘Manchin should have switched parties after the 2016 election.’
Don’t you think he values his life?
Instead, Dems are wondering what they'll be able to hold on to. Doesn't bode well for them. That, and the fact that Pres Trump is bringing 10's of thousands of people to rallies, and the Dem Rockstar Obama is barely filling up High School Gyms in California.
This is just a layman's analysis, but I think we'll be fairly satisfied with the outcome on Tuesday. Maybe not 100% happy, but satisfied. I'll take that.
It's a sure bet that after they Fostered him he would go back to voting democrat.
That has nothing to do with it!
Manchin wants to be President.
I have run the following theory past people who know him personally and they agree with it.
Manchin is going to remain a democrat. He sees himself “riding to the rescue” after the Rat party and GOP exhausts itself on “extremism”. (Yes Trump the sometimes democrat, sometimes NYC -liberal Republican is an extreme right winger in this particular delusion!). Manchin will pick up “the pieces” of the what’s left of the Rat party. Get its nomination and then present himself to America as the safe sane moderate alternative to the extremes. A “middle-of-the-road southern democrat” like Slick Willie but without the zipper problems & harridan harpy wife. He will then “triangulate” himself to the presidency. There are a couple problems with this:
1) Its not 1992, politics are very different now the “middle” is mostly gone!,
2) He does not have the national political skills like Slick did. His skills likely will keep him in the Senate but thats it! (The Senate - a job he hates!) Back before his last Senate run he tried to hatch a scheme to return to the Governorship - state Rat party wouldn’t go along,
3) He’s pretty unacceptable to the present Rat party, at least for the top of the ticket.
4) This all takes time & he is not a spring chicken.
Now is the time for WV to get rid of Manchin, unfortunately the have a particularly weak tool to do it with. I hope Morrissey wins but I doubt it. Trump will have to drag Morrissey across the finish line.
Machin also tried to push through a gun-control bill that would have enacted defacto mandantory gun registration. Fail!
Yep !
I remember that!
The Manchin signs in my neighborhood are kind of pathetic.
Professionally done of course but say very little.
The pro-Manchin UMW sign is almost hilarious in how little it says about a 34 year WV Democrat politician. It says “Friend of Coal - Manchin”. I hope he loses but I fear he won’t!
Trump will have to drag Morrissey to the finish line!
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