MyBookie: Betting site odds favor GOP keeping control of House

American Thinker ^ | 10/29/2018 | Thomas Lifson

[SeekAndFind]

We've been hearing about the inevitable "blue wave" handing control of the House of Representatives to Democrats since before President Trump was inaugurated.  Maxine Waters, for one, gained the sobriquet "Auntie Maxine" for offering the political equivalent of bedtime stories promising impeachment on the come, once voters corrected the obvious error they committed by electing Trump.  History, after all, dictates that the president's party loses support, and the GOP's margin in the House is smaller than the historic average.

Polls continue to predict a blue wave, albeit one that might be too small for surfers.  But polls depend on constructing a model of the expected turnout and then finding respondents to match the model: a certain percentage of Republicans, independents, and Democrats.  If the pollsters fail to accurately predict which kinds of voters will be motivated in an off-year election, their polls are useless.

That hasn't stopped them from offering their own versions of the odds favoring the Democrats to take over the lower chamber.  Nate Silver, who remains the media's favorite polling guru despite offering odds well north of 90% favoring a Hillary Clinton win in 2016, puts the odds of a Democrat speaker of the House next year at nearly the same level of certainty: 85%.

But people who put their money on the line in making predictions question the pollsters.  William Cummings, writing in USA Today, writes:

The odds on MyBookie favor Republicans maintaining hold of their majority, even as political forecaster Nate Silver says there is an 84.9 percent chance of a Democratic victory. 

[fortheDeclaration]

There is no blue wave, as early voting is showing. GOP will hold the House and pick up Senate seats.

[MplsSteve]

I hope so.

Here in Minnesota, the Dems (and all of their special interest money) have been conducting a full frontal assault on two GOP reps, Jason Lewis (2nd CD) and Eric Paulson (3rd CD).

If these two races are symbolic of what’s happening elsewhere, I’m a bit alarmed as to what election night will bring.

[TangledUpInBlue]

Don’t drink any kool aid. Just go VOTE

[Vermont Lt]

I am reminded of Brexit: the 1,000 pound money was on staying. The 10 pound money was on Brexit. And there were more of the small bets.

[CommerceComet]

I know this isn’t a perfect predictor but I have a hard time reconciling the fact that almost all Senate races are trending toward the Republicans but the House races aren’t? I know different dynamics could be in play but seems inconsistent to me. If I were betting on the House, I would bet the Republicans hold control and possibly even pick up a few seats.

[Trump.Deplorable]

This might turn into a blowout for us, it has the recipe for it, we have the momentum, we have the economic success, we have a lot of great positives for our side. I don’t want to sound over confident or anything, but we could even do better then that.

12 senate seats and 20-30 house pick ups.

The polls could be wrong, again. And a lot of these so called “lean dem” races are within the margin of error.

To this date, the Dims have not demonstrated to us a reason why they should hold power. And that is a reason why they will lose. They used this same formula in 2002, and it failed bigly.

[GOPJ]

The odds on MyBookie favor Republicans maintaining hold of their majority, even as political forecaster Nate Silver says there is an 84.9 percent chance of a Democratic victory.

Hillary's chance of winning was in the high nineties, right?

[USS Alaska]

I checked it out and the money is on the pubbies, not overwhelming amounts, but the bettors are putting their own money on the pubbies holding the house.

They way the betting is going right now shows the pubbies picking up 2-3 seats in the senate, but there is a week to go and events will change some minds.

I'm really thinking the 'caravan' of illegals is going to have an unexpected and very dramatic impact and it will be in our favor.

The Trump Tuesday announcement will tell the tale.

In the words of The President, "Let's see what happens".

[Sarah Barracuda]

There might have been a blue wave at the beginning, but NOT anymore..and the Dems know it..expect things to get extra crazy between now and election day. They know they are about to lose their chance of ever regaining any power

[BBQToadRibs]

Pollsters trying to be persuasive rather than predictive. Didn’t go so well last time around for Hillary.

[editor-surveyor]

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GOP will do more than keep the House.

They will definitely gain seats.

The Walkaway is huge and growing from the coverage the caravan is getting.

[editor-surveyor]

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Anti-American Stinker is printed in Kool-Aid.
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[Pollster1]

If we keep the House and Senate, with gains in at least the Senate, even the GOPe may finally credit President Trump as an asset to the party. Trump is going out there daily to stump for conservatives and even for republicans, and that is making all the difference.