This is the best things have looked so far. Rs should have 54 Senate seats and House is too close to call. There is always a break to one side during the last week. That break will determine who takes the House.
Exactly. To paraphrase Rush in his interview with Hannity, the election outcome will be affected by things that haven’t happened yet. That being said, if we’ve peaked, we peaked just when early voting (a democrat invention) started. I don’t know whose idea the migrant “caravan” was, but it was an exquisitely awful idea if you’re rooting for the democrats. Not sure what they’re thinking on the blue side, but I hope they keep up the good work!
I think we pick up 6 Senate seats, hold the House.
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Just HOW ARE YOU going to determine that "a break to one side during the last week" determined the eventual House results?
That is foolish speculation on your part.
But I guess it may make you feel somewhat better.
We’re going to end up with a minimum of 56 seats and possibly as many as 60.
RCP shows FL, IN, MT breaking Dem and it’s not likely that any more than one of them will.
Longer shot upside scenario: if that Dem line of defense breaks, the next line is MN, WI, NJ, and MI. Manchin seems to have weathered the Kavanaugh affair reasonably well, but his seat could go down as well if this goes red-wave.
There really aren’t any downside scenarios at any odds worth mentioning. GOP +2 absolute floor, +5 likely, +9 possible. The terrain in terms of which seats were up and where is just terrible for the Ds this year.