Posted on 10/20/2018 2:35:42 AM PDT by naturalman1975
IN A shock result, the Wentworth by-election has already been called in favour of Kerryn Phelps after a 27 per cent swing against the Liberal Party.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.com.au ...
The conservative Liberal/National coalition government only held a majority of one and have now lost that with today's result. An independent has taken the seat.
This does not mean the immediate collapse of the government - while the Coalition now only has 74 of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives (75 is a majority because the Speaker who is a member of the House, only votes in the event of a tied vote), the Labor opposition only holds 69 seats.
The remaining seats (the 'Crossbench') includes independents, and minor party candidates, including at least a couple who we would expect to support the government in a confidence motion, meaning the government can hold on.
But there has to be an election before the middle of next year, and the Prime Minister, Scott Morrison might well decide to go earlier... at the moment it looks like it would be an absolute landslide victory to the Labor Party, but whether Morrison can turn that around... it doesn't seem likely, given this result.
While a win might be unlikely Morrison still remains preferred PM over Shorten. He needs to hang in as long as possible. I think the longer he remains the more popular he becomes. As the winner was independent it says nothing about Labor. It did however reflect how sick and tired we all are in the politics of division within the Liberal Party and what better place for that to be expressed than to vote for a well known independent. It is quite possible that she will lose this seat come election time as this was all about protest!
Make it simple for those of us who don’t know all the names and parties or understand the parliamentary maneuvers.
Is Australia moving to the Right or the Left?
Thanks.
Liberal/National coalition - broadly speaking, conservative. Right.
Labor - socialist. Left.
The current government is Liberal/National. They have just lost their majority.
Labor is very likely to win the next general election in a landslide, sometime before the middle of next year.
It’s not impossible Morrison could pull it off - I think back to 1993, when everybody assumed Labor was going to lose in a landslide and they held on.
But I will be realistic in describing what I think is likely.
Preferred PM doesn’t meant an awful lot - it’s not nothing, but it’s not that big a deal.
I do think a lot of those voting today will come back - they had a chance to protest today without really changing anything. In the next general election, I’d be surprised if they don’t come back to the Liberals.
So this is bad news for us?
So this is bad news for us?
It’s bad news for conservatives, yes. At least in simple terms.
I can see some benefits to it - part of the reason why the Liberal/National coalition is on the nose in Australia is because it’s tried to be too centrist and has lost its way for the last few years. Maybe the fact that this hasn’t won it the votes the people who have pushed that thought it would, will reinvigorate the true conservative wing of the party again.
So next year...higher taxes...carbon tax...and a government declaration that Trump is the most evil creature to have ever walked the earth.
I hope so. But I just CANNOT BELIEVE
how westerners can be so oblivious to the fact that these Islamist Savages ARE INCAPABLE OF assimilation, have no desire to do, and want to impose their savagery
on us. AND THE LIBERAL LEFT IS PROMOTING THIS INSANITY.
Pet wiki...
“Kerryn Lyndel Phelps, AM (born 14 December 1957) is an Australian medical practitioner and politician. She was the first woman and first LGBT person to be elected president of the Australian Medical Association (AMA). “
“In 2009, Phelps was named one of the 25 most influential lesbians in Australia by readers of the website samesame.com.au.”
25 what?!?!
The reason for Trump is Obama same thing will happen in Australia
Re: “Labor is very likely to win the next general election in a landslide...”
Great summary. Thanks.
A couple more questions.
(1) What percentage of eligible voters are foreign born or first generation Australian?
(2) In the USA, new immigrant citizens and their USA born children vote 70% to 80% for the Democrat Party (Left). How does that compare to Australia?
(3) In many Parliamentary countries, immigrants often have their own Parties, which traditionally align with the Left. Is that how it works in Australia?
(4) The population of the USA is 13 times larger than Australia.
We take in more than 1 million LEGAL immigrants per year.
We “naturalize” (confer citizenship) on about 750,000 per year (about a 5 year wait to move from “legal” to “citizen”).
Officially, we have about 12 million ILLEGAL immigrants, but most people think the number is much higher.
What do your immigration numbers look like?
Thanks again.
Turns out she may not have won! Its going to get very tight given that early pre-voting was heavily in favour of Sharma. Got my Knees bent and fingers crossed!
Tim Blair’s view ahead of the election - https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/blogs/tim-blair/wealthy-wentworth-weather-weirdos-set-to-scuttle-scomo/news-story/3b6f894d3446182c877289be4491d6c8
“25 what?!?!”
Sucks, doesn’t it?
Yes - that’s very interesting.
It’s going to be very embarrassing for a lot of people if the result does change.
Haha including most of the news sources who couldn’t wait to celebrate a Liberal downfall. It doesnt take a lot of maths to see that it is quite possible at this stage!
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