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To: editor-surveyor

That would be shocking.


5 posted on 10/19/2018 4:08:19 PM PDT by OddLane
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To: OddLane

Avoid damp floors in bare feet.

Wear rubber-gloves

Stay away from metal poles sticking up in the air

Keep your furniture grounded.

In other words, get ready to be shocked

I read a couple of articles last year by statisticians that claimed polls are, at this point useless. It is taking the pollsters something like 3000 to 5000 calls to get one person to answer the questions. With that type of nonparticipation rate, it is nearly impossible to balance a survey.

The sites like RCP that average several polls over a period time can fail to detect rapid movement by voters on issues because the older samples hide the amount of change. Averaging polls over time can, at best tell you the opinion of voters from dates “X” to “Y” but the problem is, only “Y” matters. It simply does not matter who someone planned to vote for two-weeks before an election. It only matters who they voted for on election day.

Lastly, polls are balanced based on previous elections. If the turn out model is wrong then the poll is wrong. There is evidence that the historical turn out model is wrong this time.

The records of early voting released so far indicate that Republican voter participation numbers are up; sometimes by as much as 7% and despite the media hype that democrat numbers are flat or down.

I may be wrong but this election looks to be a barn-burner. Maybe a city-block burner actually because I think the Democrats are, at best going to tread water in the house and lose 7 seats in the Senate and will instruct their thugs to riot.

Here is the question: If the Republicans pick up 4-7 Senate seats will they really loose seats or just break even in the house?

We will see.


33 posted on 10/19/2018 4:44:24 PM PDT by Fai Mao (There is no rule of law in the US until The PIAPS is executed.)
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