Posted on 10/16/2018 12:20:12 PM PDT by Ravi
10/16/18: D - 35,191 R - 23,511
10/12/16: D - 36,216 R - 23,420
10/22/14: D - 35,897 R - 25,195
09/26/12: D - 35,059 R - 5,703
Blum (R) won in 2016 53.9% to 46.1%
Blum (R) won in 2014 51.2% to 48.8%
Braley (D) won in 2012 56.9% to 41.7%
Thanks for posting. LS and I were discussing the numbers.
I drove completely thru Iowa last week. I didn’t think they had 10,000 people in the whole state!
I picked these somewhat arbitrary dates because I wanted to match when the Democrats roughly requested around 35,000 ballots from year to year to see what the Republican number would be in comparison. Naturally, the dates would vary.
Dems went gangbusters in 2012 with the absentee ballot requests early (9/26/12) in comparison to more recent election cycles.
Hopefully there are some Trumpocrats in the district.
Doesn’t look like a Blue wave, numbers look normal when he has won easily.
Rush made the point today.
Why would people turn on a dime to vote against Trump?
It doesn’t make sense not when things are going as well as they are.
actually its about 1 million population. we are outnumbered by the illegals 15 to 1 if they all came here, but it seems like they are here already. theres thousands of dirt-poor illegals in Hills Iowa and all over around ‘sanctuary’ Iowa City. i will be voting in district 1, for Blum. Im coming out to vote so im a new Trump voter though a life-long Lincoln Republican.
Yes indeed.
Observation:
In 2014 & 2016, when Rs kept their absentee ballots within 13,000 of the Ds, the R won.
In 2012, when (with a loser like Romney) the R absentee ballots were nearly 30,000 less than the Ds, the D won.
That pattern could be a good sign for Trump’s GOP.
Pinging Larry to see what he has to say
Iowa is 3 million population. All Congressional Districts are 700-750k pop.
The 1st District is in heavily Catholic eastern Iowa and leans Dem. Rod Blum is an FR kind of conservative and could make his own life easy by going RINO but refuses to do so. He’s an unsung hero!
Hey I know nothing about IA so just trying to understand.
You have to request a ballot for each election? Do you need reasoning to do so?
Could one make the argument we’re lagging 2014 a bit? On that date in 2014 we were behind about 10.7k votes. Now on a “comparable” date in 2018 we’re behind 11.7k votes. Not a huge deal and I think I see what you’re trying to do with the dates.
Most Iowans vote election day. A fair amount however do take advantage of absentee voting (don’t know exact requirements) but it is a common phenomenon in Iowa. Dems pushed it for years.
Agree about being slightly behind 2014.
In 2012 it looks like the republicans didn’t waste any time absentee voting for Willard. The democrats remained at their usual 35,000 while 30,000 republicans in District I said “screw it”.
In 2012, when (with a loser like Romney) the R absentee ballots were nearly 30,000 less than the Ds, the D won.
———-
2012 is the key with OBAMA. Many of these vulnerable democrat senators were elected as well on his coattails.
What a sad state of affairs in 2012
In 2012, Braley was the incumbent. Didn’t run in 2014 because he ran for US Senate and lost to Joni Ernst. Not much to be learned except support for Romney in 2012 was tepid and Braley was a bad candidate statewide.
“The 1st District is in heavily Catholic eastern Iowa and leans Dem.”
My old stomping grounds...Dubuque specifically. Yes, very catholic and union but swinging R in recent times.
They won’t, Red wave coming.
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