Skip to comments.ABC: Generic Ballot In Battleground Districts Is … R+1?
Posted on 10/15/2018 4:37:06 PM PDT by 11th_VA
The key to voter enthusiasm in this midterm cycle may be the same as it is in real estate: Location, location, location. ABC News Rick Klein takes a look at the current generic-ballot polling from the latest Washington Post/ABC partnership and notes that the double-digit Democratic lead would normally spell curtains for the GOP. However, Klein points out that almost all of it comes in districts well in hand for Democrats and that the battleground looks different:
If this was a national referendum on President Donald Trump, hed be set for a thumping, or a shellacking, or whatever word a president not named Trump might select in conceding defeat.
Nationwide - Trump - Percent - Approval - Rating
Nationwide, Trump has a 41 percent approval rating, and Democrats have a 53-42 percent edge in the generic ballot for the House. But inside the 66 districts that are tossups, or only leaning toward one party or the other the majority makers, or breakers that lead evaporates into a 46-47 Democrats v. Republicans race.
Its a similar dynamic driven by Democratic strength in cities, and weaknesses in rural areas that is driving House and Senate forecasts in opposite directions, amid a campaign close set to be dominated by the president.
Perspective - WaPo/ABC - Ballot - Result - Outer
It could be even worse than that from the Democratic perspective. The WaPo/ABC generic ballot result is on the outer edge of the aggregation at RCP, where Democrats have a 7.3-point lead. Its probably too much to call it an outlier, as Reuters and CNN both give Democrats similar leads, but most other recent polls put the difference in single digits. Rasmussen calls it a solid tie and IBD/TIPP has it at D+2, but most of the polls are in the D+6 -to- D+8 range.
Gee, we’ve seen this exact game leading up to the 2016 election.
Fake polls are Rat oversampled. It will be much closer by Election Day and R turnout is always underestimated.
Dont put stock in them.
Most of those toss up seats are currently GOP seats, so it’s not so nice.
Yup. It may be a Democrat landslide. I wouldnt bet the farm on it.
I know. It’s eerie. I had the same reaction.
Democrats and fake news media have been chortling its over.
Lets wait til the actual votes are counted.
Perhaps, but while they are always talking about Dems flipping Rep districts, you rarely hear talk of Repubs flipping Dem districts . . . and there are several places where that might happen.
But act as if they were gospel.
The ABC poll was run for one reason...to pump up the DNC base...
1. How does that compare to the past in those same districts?
2. Why use the generic, when polls are available in those actual races?
Leftists self segregate into big cities.
Kills them when they win cities 90/10 and lose everywhere else 55/45.
Wasn’t 2010 R+1 as well?
Checked out @FloridaGuy’s twitter feed, he’s been releasing his own polls for weeks showing a RED WAVE, and now the commie media is starting to roll out polls confirming he is right..you all just watch before the midterm election the commie media will report on the “Real” polls showing the GOP winning
2010 GOP won a big House majority.
Worst that could happen is a split Congress. Rats in the House may be able to impeach on a party-live vote but it will die in a GOP Senate.
If only the 45 would wake up.
The only reason why the lame idiots in the media are telling the truth now vs. a few days before the election is to motivate Dems to get out and vote and get our side feeling confident.
Bottom line ... ignore these polls. I mean, read them and laugh of course, but assume the absolute worst case scenario and that your vote is absolutely critical to keep things going in our direction.
This election can break the Democrat’s back into two parties ... and that is not hyperbole! :-) If the Dems get throttled, and there is a significant chance of that happening, you’re going to see the “Socialist Democrats” split and form their own party (there wouldn’t be a better time for them to split and seize control of the left coast + parts of NE).
Sorry ... meant complacent, not confident :-).
Who? @FloridaGuy is some magician with 13 tweets on his account.
It must be very bad for Dems out there if they are starting this early making corrections to expectations.
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