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The Greens didn’t win squat, they gained but placed a distant 2nd. The Greens gained 20 seats and the SPD LOST 20 so the left broke even, actually they technically lost voting strength as the number of seats increased. The Greens and SPD together have just 60 seats, far short of a majority.

The right actually gained seats, the CSU (slightly more conservative sister party of Merkel’s CDU) lost 16 seats and are now 18 shy of a majority. The AFD will be entering the Lantag with 22 seats (up from zero). Taking their cue from Merkel the CSU had said they would refuse to form a coalition with AFD though. They also have said no grand coalition wit the Greens.

The FPD, center-rig eitherht liberals, return with 11 seats (up from zero). That’s not enough to give the CSU a majority coalition.

So what seems likely is the CSU teaming up with the only other party, the centre/center right “Free Voters”, who have 27 seats (third place). Free voters do not have enough seats to give the Greens/SPD the majority, even if the FDP joined them they would be shy.

So basically, Merkel is embarrassed, and the state government in Bavaria gets a bit less fiscally conservative (based on my very limited knowledge of the Free Voters) as the CSU will have to team up with the Free Voters.

https://www.dw.com/en/bavarias-free-voters-what-you-need-to-know/a-45890963

Seems to me the Free voters don’t need to exist being very close to CSU/FDP positions but they have proportional representation in Germany so there you go.