But the voters there went identity politics in the primary- why won’t they do that again?
Not necessarily. That's what the media wants you to think.
The primary was very low turnout. However, in an ironic sort of way, AOC has now put this district on the map with her celebrity.
If I lived in her district, and I saw her running around the country endorsing people and trying to be some Queen-maker rather than focusing on the needs of the district, you think I'm going to vote for that candidate?
The answer is no, and this is the attitude of New Yorkers. They want stuff done, if something breaks or if they need funds, their Congresscritter better be on the phone answering it and doing a press conference in his district, not in Los Angeles hanging out with celebrities.
Their primary turnout was very low. They did not see her coming and let their guard down. She won like 500 votes
Because the primary turnout was only around 12% of democrats in the district? She won the primary with something like 8% of the registered democrats in her district voting for her. I think it will depend on who shows up to vote in November.