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"Close down the gulf oil traffic through the strait and watch how fast things get very bad for you..."

If you think closing down the straight would be bad for the US it would be catastrophic for Europe, China and the Asian tigers. China would beg the US to obliterate the mad dog mullahs and, if we refused, would likely try to take down Iran by itself. Germany would feel 'déjà vu all over again' as if it was having its oil supplies chocked off by allied bombing.

The US and Russia, like it or not, are the only energy independent superpowers and therefor would actually benefit in the long run if oil has a sustained spike. American manufacturing would benefit because of its far lower energy costs due to much cheaper electricity generated by natural gas, coal, and nuclear power. The chemical industry in America would boom even faster due to access to cheap natural gas as feedstock.

Would $200 oil cause pain, yes it would, but in the long run America would surge ahead of the pack even faster than it is doing now.

Would $200 oil cause pain, yes it would, but in the long run America would surge ahead of the pack even faster than it is doing now

I agree... Higher oil prices actually BENEFIT the US chemical industry, as it makes ethylene produced by Naphtha (Much of the rest of the world) FAR MORE expensive that ethylene produced by ethane (US). Many downstream businesses are driven economically by regional differences in ethylene prices.

I think global oil production vs demand is much closer to being in balance than people think. The last time prices were high, there was NOTHING The producing countries could do to bring it down. They couldn't produce oil fast enough. Since then, production capability has increased, while the world has been recovering from a deep recession. If global demand really starts heating up again, I could see the world getting to a shortage faster than many people expect.

The wild card here is: How much is conservation, and fuel-switching tamping down demand? I tend to think the impact is minimal. So, yea... I think the trend towards higher oil prices is going to continue...

Or, not. ;-)

The US and Russia, like it or not, are the only energy independent superpowers and therefor would actually benefit in the long run if oil has a sustained spike.

Russia is not a superpower. The US is not energy independent.

In 2017, the United States imported approximately 10.1 million barrels per day (MMb/d) of petroleum from about 84 countries. Petroleum includes crude oil, natural gas plant liquids, liquefied refinery gases, refined petroleum products such as gasoline and diesel fuel, and biofuels including ethanol and biodiesel. About 79% of gross petroleum imports were crude oil.

In 2017, the United States exported about 6.3 MMb/d of petroleum to 180 countries. About 82% of total petroleum exports were petroleum products.

The resulting net imports (imports minus exports) of petroleum were about 3.7 MMb/d.