Posted on 07/09/2018 1:52:15 PM PDT by SMGFan
When it comes to political handicapping, the easiest thing to do would be to put all of the most competitive contests into the Toss-up category and declare them too close to call. Or to argue that because Donald Trump was elected president against the projections, it’s not worth rating any races at all.
But that’s not particularly helpful to people looking for some direction and distinctions in congressional elections.
The prevailing narrative about this year’s Senate races relates to the 10 Democratic senators running for re-election in states Trump carried in 2016. But not all of those senators are created equal in their prospects for another term. Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota and West Virginia are currently in a tier of their own, and distinctions are developing within that batch of seats.
North Dakota Democrat Heidi Heitkamp is arguably the most charismatic senator running for re-election this cycle on either side of the aisle, but she also might be the most vulnerable incumbent in the country. Her 2012 victory over Republican Rep. Rick Berg, by less than 1 percentage point, has been the Democrats’ only statewide victory in the Peace Garden State in the last eight years. And of the 29 statewide races they lost over the same time frame, the closest margin was 10 points. It looks like the state has shifted to the right since Heitkamp’s initial win. And right now, a majority of the quantitative data show that the senator is already narrowly behind in the race against three-term GOP Rep. Kevin Cramer.
We’re changing the Inside Elections rating of the race from Toss-up to Tilts Republican. Democrats will point out that a majority of the polling data in the 2012 pointed to a Berg victory and The Rothenberg Political Report rated the race as Tilts Republican before Heitkamp’s win. But that doesn’t mean history will repeat itself nor is it reason to ignore the current situation.
All polls are meaningless right now.
In OH, the powers that still control financing are doing NOTHING to help the Republican candidate, an avid Trump supporter.
Morrissey is not a native son, that means a lot in WV.
People vote for her because (a)she is nice (or at least presents that image), (b)she's a woman and (c)she's a breast cancer survivor.
None of these are good enough reasons to occupy 50% of the state's U.S. Senate seat allotment. Ever since the 1950s, North Dakota has felt they need one or more Democrats in the U.S. Senate to bring home pork to an impoverished state. The state is no longer impoverished.
In Virginia the Republican establishment elites are actually working against the duly elected candidate Corey Stewart because he supports Trump.
The R NC and RSCC won’t give a dime to Stewart and are support Trump hating Barbara Comstack for Congress who votes with the democrats all the time.
The GOPe in Virginia would rather lose than have a real conservative win.
It’s why Virginia has gone from solid red to solid blue in ten years. That along with GOPe and Chamber of commerce support for illegal aliens.
Neither was Rockefeller (born in NYC) or the Klansman Byrd (born in North Carolina).
Look at the picture of Heitcamp at the source. Wow! How can anyone be nominated with a wizened face like that?
Until we see what he does, no prediction in his case makes sense.
For a quantum mechanics analogy, he's Schrodinger's cat right now and the box is still closed. He's both alive and dead (politically) until that box opens, then he'll be one or the other.
Polls are meaningless in July. However when Trump starts pounding the Democrats with the message two weeks prior to the election that a vote for a Democrat is a vote for open borders, the dissolution of effective Federal law enforcement, socialism and globalism, it will directly affect at least 10% of swing voters and the Democrats will suffer greatly on election day.
If the press in WV would air the epi pen scandal of his wife and daughter he would be defeated. ! Maybe that’s why the press up there will not air it?!
Really? Jay Rockefeller was a senator there for many years. Though he was a Democrat at a time when West Virginia was strongly Democrat.
If the scotus nominee is defeated and he’s on the wrong side, he will (probably) be defeated.
$$$$$$$$$$$$ WV’ians then were unduly influenced by his money! (Still are to some extent - current Gov for example!)
Cold cash overcame the non-native son issue.
When I was a teen there I actually blue collar Demos (union types) argue with me that Jay would front the cost of the state from his own pocket. Even as a teen I knew that was hogwash, but in those days if the “union” said it was “true!”.
Different attitudes now, but some old notions still run deep.
All true, but two candidates equal more or less in other aspects the native son is favored.
Regarding Rockefeller see money - forgive all!
Byrd - New Deal days, still Appalachia Byrd also at times claimed to related to the Virginia Byrds from the other side of the blanket.
A
I’d like to see Manchin go!
John Raese was a native son running against carpetbagger Rockefeller in 1984, and they favored Jay (of course, that was $$). Byrd, BTW, wasn’t even a Byrd. The Byrds of Virginia were bonafide royalty, being actual descendants of Pocahontas. He was White trash from North Wilkesboro, NC, named Cornelius Calvin Sale, Jr.
Manchin is going down this time. His playing both sides has gotten old, and WV has smartened up to the games of the Democrats and chucked them like a bad habit.
Agreed. This mid year election will not be like previous ones, just like the last Presidential election wasn’t like any other.
Yes, we need to support them privately.
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