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To: mac_truck

I understand your sentiments and agree that Trump said he does not want to become (further) embroiled in another mid-East conflict. However, the situation in Syria is far more complicated than our media coverage has portrayed it and the main complication is Iran.

In classic Cold War proxy terms, the conflict in Syria is too much of a winner for most in the administration to abandon. We have minimal commitment there, but the casualties, financial loss, and loss of prestige that Iran is suffering is a big gain for little expense in strategic terms. Russia has the same problem to a lesser extent and even though the author is pro-Israel, she does sum it up well.

I do not want to be involved over there and do not think Trump wants to either as he said, but the old adage “we can deal with it now when the problem is small or deal with it later when the problem is large” applies to Syria. We have a minimal investment right now and I don’t think Trump wants to grow our presence, but handing Syria (and the border with Jordan and Israel) over to Iran is not acceptable either. It is a mess, but right now the mess is contained within the borders of Syria..... allow Iran to dominate and it will most certainly spill over into Jordan and Israel. Israel will not tolerate this so you have the Russian backed Syrian government, the forces of Iran doing their own thing, the remnants of ISIS and the unreliable rebel forces, and the U.S. backed Israel. The UN as usual is feckless. However, we back Jordan and Israel. Withdraw for a soundbite and the whole region sees that we abandon our alliances and that is NOT the Trump doctrine.

It is a big understatement to call the situation complicated. The meeting between Trump and Putin will be very interesting and presents the best opportunity for some kind of detente within Syria that freezes out Iran and further weakens ISIS. I do not see much downside here and I think Mattis and Bolton see both the opportunity and the necessity for us to protect both Jordan and Israel. The potential upside for Trump is huge and Putin sees this as well so even by maintaining the status quo in the tinderbox, Trump has the better position going into the talks/negotiation. Abandon the situation and we strengthen both ISIS and Iran and Russia appears stronger as we appear weaker.

Right, wrong, fair, or indifferent.... that is how I see it and as long as we do not put more forces on the ground I am willing to stick with Mattis and Bolton on this one for now. I think Bolton (and Mattis) have a middle ground in mind that will work for Russia and the US and her allies and that is why they pushed for the meeting. The odd man out will be Iran and anything that hurts them is good in my book.


17 posted on 07/05/2018 7:37:38 AM PDT by volunbeer (Find the truth and accept it - anything else is delusional)
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To: volunbeer

Good analysis.


26 posted on 07/05/2018 8:21:14 AM PDT by granada
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