Erdogan’s economic successes had to do largely with lucky timing (global capital flows toward developing economies), incorporating a batch EU recommended policy changes, a flood of EU investment, and still being able to freely print more money into the rapidly growing GDP. Turkey was then one of the best options for Global capital, looking for higher returns.
Well the boost of the early reforms has past, and his new policies (cronyism) are an increasing drag. He has driven away European investors dramatically, and luck is not with him now, as a growing US economy is attracting capital back from developing economies. Turkey is becoming significantly less attractive to investors, as compared to other emerging markets due to political risk and less rule of law in commerce. There is growing fear about the risks in Turkey.
Erdogan has continued printing money though, and now his budget deficits (previously held in check procedurally in the Legislature) are breaking out from historical norms, under his increasingly autocratic whims. Now its time for the economy to pay the bill for the over-printing of money into a sharply slowing economy.
“Erdogan’s economic successes had to do largely with lucky timing (global capital flows toward developing economies), incorporating a batch EU recommended policy changes, a flood of EU investment, and still being able to freely print more money into the rapidly growing GDP.”