Difference from GOP victories 2010 and 2014 cannot just be anti BHO?
But does GOP have a message?
Claim is Democrats will be more enthusiastic to vote than GOP voters.
Its not a claim, its fact... Dems have a huge enthusiasm advantage... and the GOP has not given anyone other than their reliable base a reason to show up this fall so far.
Look at the AZ special election for example... Dems turned out at nearly the level they do for PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, while the GOP candidate got around Midterm level support... only reason dems didn’t win, was because the district was flat out overwhelmingly red.
If the GOP doesn’t realize it NEEDS those non traditional MAGA voters, and start to actually give them a reason to care and show up, you are going to see a LOT of purple and pink districts fall in the mid terms.
Sure in deep red districts high D turnout wont matter... .. but pink and purple districts it will turn those districts. Not all of them, but more than enough for republicans to lose the house... which they are well no their way to do presently.
The GOP is categorically INCOMPETENT... they have no idea who the electorate is, or how to even talk to them. Trump showed them how to win for a generation or two in 2016, and they are flat out refusing to listen. At present I fully expect 10 or more Congressional districts to flip D in the upper midwest alone.