Posted on 04/25/2018 4:20:28 AM PDT by Pinkbell
NY republicans are called “democrats” in most of the country
What is the Democrats’ messaging?
I'm concerned, but our motivation here and in AZ was low. Their hatred is high. That too will balance out... when it counts in 7 months.
The article is BS because it buried at the very end the fact that NYS Republicans and Conservatives surrendered and went over to the other side BEFORE the election!
The Dem was not only allowed to also run on Conservative party line, but he was backed by the man who ran for Governor on the Republican party line. (See post #22.)
The election margin doesn't mean a great deal. Highly R district ...no motivation or concern from our side, whereas Dems are highly motivated to hurt DJT. Dem was a younger attractive India doctor but liberal. Lesko is solid conservative, but less attractive. Happy she won.
Long Island is... long.
The greater NYC suburbs have been moving slowly but inexorably east, bringing the leftists with them as the outer island slowly transforms from nearly rural to more suburban.
THAT’S MY POINT!
The GOP messaging for the fall is going to get them slaughtered, if its anything like what they were using in PA-18. They are NOT realizing who and why they won in the upper midwest.
They are running messaging and campaigning like every election for the last 20 years ignoring 2016, and its going to cost them.
If they don’t realize that just talking to their reliable voters will NOT be enough in many purple and pink districts to counter the democratic enthusiasm this fall, they are going to handily lose the house.
Right now, the GOP will gain probably 6 or more Senate seats this fall, and will lose the house... No, it won’t be the type of tidal wave that happened in 1994 and 2010, but it will be more than enough for the loss of the house.
Unless the GOP ecosphere wakes up to reality, the only hope they have for holding the house is that the Democrats do something so stupid that THEY, not the GOP, motivate the MAGA voters to turn out... If the Dems were to openly run on impeachment this fall for example, the Republicans would likely GAIN 20+ seats in the house, in spite of their incompetence. However, if the GOP keeps the same playbook they have been using, they are going to lose the house this fall.
That’s what’s disturbing. They will literally impeach him without a crime committed - just make something up or claim he’s a threat to democracy. I don’t trust Mitch either if we keep the Senate.
EXACTLY, they are not remotely talking to the non traditional R voter that Trump attracted, the MAGA voter if you will. The disheartened and disenfranchised voters....
They are just talking to the same old group of people they always have and THAT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH to counter the democrat high turnout that is coming.
Trump showed the GOP how to make the upper mid west as solidly RED as the south, and the GOP has completely ignored it.
As I said elsewhere, if they keep their messaging the same as it was for PA-18 and these other special elections in the fall, I fully expect 10 or more House Seats to flip in the Upper Midwest ALONE!... They will lose the house.
On the Senate side R’s will likley pick up 6+ seats because Senate races are statewide affairs, so overwhelming a state is a lot harder than a marginal district.
GOP needs to wake up, because if they don’t, the only prayer they have for holding the house is the Dems doing something that will fire up that MAGA block... which Dems are pretty dumb, so it is possible, but I wouldn’t bank on it.
R’s shouldn’t either they need to wake up to what MAGA is, and show they are onboard, and give those voters a reason to care and show up to vote for them.. .if not, kiss the house goodbye.... and their current messaging offers those voters NO REASON TO CARE.
Democrats messaging is simply “STOP TRUMP” and that’s all they need... they have spend 3 years now basically telling their folks he’s the antichrist... the Trump Haters, and left are going to show up and vote, they are going to crawl over broken glass to vote... Remember how you likely felt in 2010????? That’s how they feel now, doesn’t matter who the candidate is, as long as its got a D by its name they are going to show up to vote for them, PERIOD.
They have enthusiasm and in many marginal districts, pink and purple ones, that will be more than enough for them to win, especially if the GOP is not reaching outside its reliable base to attract voters, and give them a reason to care and show up... and the messaging up and down the GOP ecosphere doesn’t and hasn’t.
You can’t run the same tired message you have run for 20+ years, and expect the people who never showed up and voted for you before on it to suddenly show up now. They continue to run Rovesque campaign messaging in the age of Trump... and its a recipe for disaster, particularly outside the deep red districts.
GOP better start getting onboard and talking to the non traditional MAGA voter, or they are going to lose the house. These voters need engaged and a reason to show up, and the GOP is offering them NOTHING... .hell they aren’t even trying to talk to them.
Messaging like “the democrat will just be a Pelosi rubber stamp” may fire up your reliable base, and hell it may even be true... but if that was going to motivate those MAGA voters to turn up it would have worked for the last 20 years... it didn’t. Its not going to now.
Its damned near incompetent what the GOP is doing... they truly have no clue who the electorate is.
They flipped four seats in Oklahoma. This is an article about one of them:
Paladino campaigned for Trump. I recall that.
It doesn't help in New York as Ed Cox (married to Tricia Nixon) is the party had for the last decade or so totally decimating the once useful county party system. Now it's only about GOPe Cox attending cocktail parties.
Local race, financed locally.
DNC still broke....and lost AZ
The Connor Lamb strategy - run as a Blue Dog but inevitably vote with Pelosi. Voters didn’t see through it there - don’t expect they will see through it in other places. There are people who vote the candidate (hence why Trump got Obama voters).
I did not realize so many intelligence folks are running and consider it no coincidence as they have become heroes among the left who consider them allies in taking down Trump. The GOP should double down on the biases we have seen. In the end, though, it has to be about candidates and issues. Hillary lost by saying, “I’m better than that guy.” You have to give people something to vote for.
Lesko DIDN’T fire them up, she only won by 6 points, a solid win, but nowhere near the 20 points Trump won by.
Yes, she won, but it wasn’t because she got the MAGA vote to show up... looking at the special election results show EXACTLY what I am talking about.
The last 2 elections in that district, the Democrats got 41k and 93k total votes.. 1 being a midterm and the other being a presidential year. The Republican got 128k and 204k respectively.
This special election the results were 83k D and 91k R... meaning in a special elecition the D’s nearly got the same turn out they did in a PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION!!!! While the R, didn’t even match a midterm election turnout!
She didn’t win because she got the MAGA vote, she won because the district was red enough that she would win just on the standard R turnout.
This election is displaying exactly the point I am making, Lesko didn’t get the MAGA vote at all.. she simply got the reliable R vote... in that district it was enough to hold off nearly presidential year turnout by the D’s.... in a LOT of districts this will not be the case come fall.
The LI Race, while I don’t have the numbers in front of me, I suspect you will see the same pattern... the D got near Presidential level numbers, while the R didn’t even hit previous mid term turnouts.
The GOP is incompetent, up and down its entire ecosphere. It is going to lose this fall because it just can’t come to grips, or refuses to come to grips with, the reality that is the US electorate and why Trump won.
Democrats just flipped a state Assembly district in New York (40 Yr GOP seat)
In the end you get the government you deserve.
You may be correct but what I see is a Democrat party whose only message is that they will raise your taxes, demand more illegal immigration, continue lying about everything and impeach Trump and kill more babies. The economy is roaring and more are employed. Why would I even consider voting for a Democrat?
You may be correct but what I see is a Democrat party whose only message is that they will raise your taxes, demand more illegal immigration, continue lying about everything and impeach Trump and kill more babies. The economy is roaring and more are employed. Why would I even consider voting for a Democrat?
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