I think this is very high risk. While our grievances are real, China is not going to take this lying down. One immediate danger will be if China stops buying our sovereign debt. We are going to be running massive deficits thanks to the giant tax cuts just pushed through and China is the single biggest buyer of American bonds. If they step back from that interest rates could jump dramatically. Which in turn will add to the national debt.
And if they start unloading the bonds they already have onto the open market... well katie bar the door. Cuz it’s gonna get ugly.
This was my big reservation with Trump. I bet he wouldn't be stupid enough to go down this road.
How would the tax cuts cause increased deficits? Tax cuts like the ones passed increase the funds coming into the treasury.
Easy to remedy. Just slash entitlement spending.
WHAT????
We can transfer business to countries that are not funding a huge war machine to compete with us, are not building islands out of nothing in order to claim exclusive economic zones, or conduct CONSTANT cyber attacks on us at competitive labor costs (Central America, Philippines, Vietnam, Africa, etc).
Either start competing, or continue losing.
“One immediate danger will be if China stops buying our sovereign debt.”
Good. That would force the government to finally stop running up our sovereign debt.
That isn’t much leverage for China. Where would they “unload” the bonds? China has been selling off Treasuries ever since its liquidity crisis a few years back. There is a reason China continues to buy U.S. Treasuries - simply put, they offer more stability than other foreign financial assets. China could sell off the Treasuries, but would do so at great risk of destabilizing its export-dependent economy, which needs foreign debt to convert to liqidity for its state-run industries.
That you, Mitch? Paul?
Never heard of the Laffer curve or just dont believe in it?
I doubt it, Everyone with money over there has a good chunk of their savings invested in america. their investment in us has doubled ours over there for like three straight years