Posted on 03/15/2018 7:04:48 AM PDT by Kaslin
The problem is a matter of running a loser as candidate. Losers lose.
We learned that we can’t pull a Hillary and take winning for granted.
I think she’s recognizing that “all politics is local” and that voters like someone whom they believe connect with them.
This is a special election to replace an elected official for the remainder of term, right? So there will be another election for the same seat this Fall.
So republican turnout was low, right? Who can get excited about a seat that is to be filled for only 8 or so months before another election?
The only lesson is that democrats can win when the republican base stays home, duh.
If I had to bet, I would bet the republican base turns out in November.
Until then, this issue is nothing more than grist for media types to chew on when they have nothing better to do.
1.) This “special election” is meaningless, in that, come November, Pennsylvanians get to do the dance over again.
2.) Assuming that Mr. Lamb has real political aspirations, anyone who believes that he will not tow the Democrat Party line is seriously deluded.
3.) Considering the unconstitutionality of the “redistricting” done by the PA Supreme Court, and the fact that, by such remapping, Mr. Lamb and his contemporaries no longer live in the districts for which they ran or will run, the entirety of this political farce will become moot - the sordid mess will soon end up before the SCOTUS.
That is a good point that is overlooked here. Districts where the incumbent resigns due to scandal almost always flip to the other party at the next election. Having the same party win a seat when the incumbent is forced out of office due to scandal is a very rare exception to the rule.
So, who won?
But they don't want to.
Deny that reality, and voters will fall for many false narratives by candidates like Lamb who are selected "bait" for votes in 2018 and 2010!
They are talking about the perception, not the reality. The perception was that Lamb was a U.S. Marine who served overseas. The reality is that it was a less than two year assignment as a desk jockey in Okinawa which, while technically overseas, might have just as well have been Hawaii in terms that the biggest challenge was getting through the day working indoors when it was more pleasant outdoors.
Special elections are always beset with low turnout, always.
People are busy, any election that is short-term is not going to drive likely voters in droves to the polls.
What this all about is democrat cheerleading. They are using this to give hope to their disgruntled base.
It helps when the “conservative “ democrat candidate is (deliberately ) permitted to lie about what he will support, and who he will oppose.
Well look, it’s not good and it’s depressing seeing all the faggots celebrating.
But the bottom line is a poor candidate lost by an eyelash to a dude in a district that won’t exist in 10 months, file that under “not the hugest deal”. Bad GOP candidates can always find a way to lose in all but the most Republican districts especially when facing slick a-holes who do all they can to fool people into forgetting they are running under the democrat banner.
What’s important now is November, current District 18 has essentially been cut in half by the illegal court ordered redistricting. Lambchop will be running for reelection against Congressman Keith Rothfus is new district 17. And he would have ended up being the the nominee in district 17 even if Saccone had come up on top.
The bad news is new district 17 is only narrowly Republican. The good news is Rothfus is a strong incumbent who beat a sitting rat (Mark Critz) in 2012 so pajama boy has his work cut out for him. A lot of other rats are intersting in running, the best thing that could happen is a progtard beats Lambchop in the primary, the would be a lark.
The other half of current district 18 is new district 14, it’s an open seat and heavily Republican, Trump won it by 30 points (22 irrc was the margin in the current 18th), no dem has a chance there. Loser Saccone will be seeking the GOP nomination there, I hope he doesn’t get it.
Even though Murphy had won reelection, the district is 50,000 D advantage.
Mike Sheppard on twitter has Sheppard’s Law, which says that no one can win a special election if he is of the same party as the person stepping down from a scandal. (See Dan Johnson’s widow losing in KY). Some truth to that.
Ultimately, the question is in states with primaries, would another Lambchop ever get through? Probably not. The national whackadoodles are pushing the party further left. Those candidates cannot win general elections. But if the “conservative Dems” get through primaries, they will be hard to beat just because Trump carried so many D districts. Also there is the historically consistent “party out of power gains seats in off years”.
How long do you think it will take Conor Lamb to EVOLVE on gun control?
D’s might have a registration edge in the district but that doesn’t mean much, it’s been voting Republican for President and Congress both for a while and it hasn’t been close either, Romney and McCain won this district, easily, and Murphy never had a close race. It’s not a seat that should have a close race and it took a perfect storm to lose (apparently, though I doubt we “really” lost) by a whisker.
We saw a lot of “moderate” rats win R seats in 06/08 but I’m not overrly worried about that, and best of luck winning democrat primaries, fellas. Next week’s primary in IL-3 is gonna be a good acid test for moderates.
Saccone was crummy, otherwise this doesn’t happen, irregardless of the democrat candidates appeal or the scandal of the previous incumbent (and curse the loser for quitting like a little pansy and creating this unnecessary situation, as you said these special elections are irritating).
Lambchop (if he wins the nomination) has a tougher opponent for November , but also a more favorable district.
Depends on the specifics of what he's supposed to vote on.
“Bad GOP candidates...”
And there’s the root cause right there. I won’t bother listing the more infamous names.
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