I use to put some credence into your posts as they related to the vote trends in Pennsylvania. The problem I had was that you didn’t do any better than I did and I was 4600 miles away in Hawaii. I tend to think that you may be underestimating the effort to reelect Saccone by the party. The very fact that the republicans stuck together and won the State for Trump in 2016 with the help of thousands of “Reagan democrats” bodes well for upcoming elections in the Keystone State.
I am not underestimating effort, I live in this district, I have stated REPEATEDLY that the GOP is fighting harder that I have ever seen in this district... I have said that on many many threads... I have stated again and again, should Saccone lose its NOT going to be for lack of fighting for this district, but the MESSAGING they are using to do it.
Republicans didn’t stick together to win PA, that’s the point... that’s the whole Point... Republicans DID NOT DELIVER THE RUST BELT to TRUMP.... Yes, they voted for him, but not by any significantly greater or lower numbers than they had for previous republicans.... What delivered the Rust Belt to Trump were Independents and Democrats who voted Trump!!!
That, that, is what gave Trump the victory, and that’s my entire point. Special and mid term elections are about TURNOUT. The party out of power is going to turn out.. if you are the party in power you have to get more than your party base to show up, especially if you are not in a state that is DEEP your color.
The messaging in this race has been almost exclusively RED MEAT for the Republican base, but NADA for those I and D’s who voted for Trump.. the disenfranchised who showed up in 2016 motivated and excited... Nothing in the Saccone/GOPe/PAC messaging has been anything beyond standard R messaging, that they have used for about 15 years,... and that, is NOT IMHO going to get those MAGA I and D’s to turn out.
R’s are fighting hard, but they are fighting with the WRONG message, an d that’s my point. Saccone SHOULD win this, but reality is, with right messaging, he would run away with it.. instead its going to be a squeaker win most likely at best.. and Lamb winning is not beyond the realm of possibility.
If the messaging for this race is what the R’s are planning for the fall, expect them to lose the house.