Emerson College poll conducted March 1-3 (Trump Tariffs announced on 1st)
48-45% (+/-4.8%)
Sample size = 474 (”likely voters”)
I coultnt find weighting of party affiliation.
Trump to visit district a few days before election.
The district itself is heavily republican for western p it is mostly more white collar neighborhoods. Democrats are motivated and aregoing to show up. There is no doubt they have enthusiasm.. the Rs have been very acrive in this race. Canvassing ad buys etc.
Lamb may pull it off if republicans don’t show up.
Should Lamb win it won’t be because the Rs didn’t fight. It will be because their message didn’t motivate.
And for the record I live in this district.
Most of saccones ads have been tying lamb to Pelosi...along with standard R messaging. Lower taxes, stronger defense.. etc. they have attacked Lamb with pelosi’s crumbs comments as well.
But what they have not done effectively in my mind is tie saccone to Trump. His name is not mentioned often by either candidate and I understand why Lamb doesn’t say it but the pro saccone ads not explicitly stating saccone will stand with Trumps MAGA agenda and is needed to continue it has not been part of any advertising I have seen.
I think this is a big mistake, you have to get the MAGA voters engaged and I don’t think saccones and the R PAC messaging is going to do that.
We will see soon, but if Lamb wins it won’t be because Rs didn’t fight it will be because their messaging did not motivate turnout.
Ask and ye shall receive. They hid it here. https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ECP_3.4.18_PA_USC_18.xls
This is the Clinton skew method !!!
Only 79 were high school educated or less.
137 had some college
143 (30%) college grads.
116 with post docs. 24%
Wow. That is a lot of educated folks !!!