Before Erdogan came along....if you’d asked anyone in the Med who was the President of Turkey...it was a fifty-fifty guess that people would know the guy’s name. Today? You can go across all of Germany and test people, and probably 95-percent of Germans know Erdogan. In some ways....he got Turkey noticed and on the map. In other ways...he’s created a long-term problem for the Turks.
I don’t see a war coming out of this. Erdogan needs to rattle his sword to show power but this is one country that really can’t afford a conflict with anyone. The neighbors all trade with them and it makes no real sense. They already are hurt by tourism going down and Europeans not showing up....this all leads to higher unemployment, and failed resorts sitting there without tourists.
I would say that Erdogan’s other interest, besides wanting to rule the world, is suppressing the Kurds—as shown by his entering the fray in Syria to keep pro-government forces from helping them.
The two interests are somewhat related.