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“How long can the Saudis, Russkis, etc., hold out while limiting their production”

The rise in price more than made up for the lost volume since they agreed to cut - but - total revenue is still below what it was before the US shale production started driving global prices. So while the Saudi and Russian budgets are better off than a year or two ago, both are still below their peaks, and under serious pressure (as are other producers).

The total revenue that they can manipulate by throttling their production (and increase prices), is still less than they need to thrive. They can still tighten their belts and juggle their requirements, but their ambitions are constrained. They could hold out indefinitely, but it will hurt them. Historically, producers break ranks and produce based on their own interests on a frequent basis, so the whole coalition is inherently unstable.

“Can US (and friends) increases more than make up for OPEC and friends’ production cuts and global demand increases?”

At these rates, yes, but not definitely. US production increases like the ones we have have been seeing (over a million b/d, per year) are, and will likely, swamp the ability of the Saudis and Russians (and eight other non-OPEC countries also currently agreeing to restrain their production) to cut back production enough, without choking themselves (or having cheaters break ranks, and smuggle extra oil).

In total, OPEC produces around 33 million b/d, and Russia just under 11. OPEC agreed to cut 1.2 million b/d, and the total cut was 1.8, with Russia and the others (4-5% cut, but magnified by producers like Venezuela, who couldn’t pump their quotas). So a tough to swallow cut by most of the world’s other producers, was filled in 1-2 years by the growth in the USA.

If US growth continues at such rates (likely, as long as prices stay within the shale band or higher), it will constantly strain the margin for restraint of the rest of the world’s producers (i.e. their ability to control the market). So roughly speaking, the USA ate about 5% of the Global market in under two years. Most of that comes straight out of Saudi Arabia and Russia though, so it is more than 5% of their markets. Ten years like that would inflict serious adjustments on the Saudis and Russians who are both basically one-crop economies, overwhelmingly dependent on oil revenue. The argument that the collapse of oil prices is what brought down the Soviet Union is a strong one.

The main wildcard is global demand. It is possible for the Global economy to boom enough to drive prices above the “Shale Band” ($45-65), and allow everyone to pump full throttle for a while (possibly a few years). It looks like demand is on a strong trend now, and the Russians have told OPEC that they will start increasing production this year, if prices get hot.

The net of all factors, is that US production increases are on track to absorb much of the growth during rises in demand, and to keep prices gravitating back to a natural market price in the shale band (based on real supply), and effectively deny OPEC (even with Russian complicity) the ability to artificially drive prices higher (based on artificially constrained supply). So $45-65 per barrel is the new normal, a bit more when the global economy is hot.