Lots of things effect oil and gas prices in the short run, several in the medium term, but just a few in the long run.
The growth of US production has been the biggest long term change in the oil and gas markets.
If a hurricane hits the refineries and gas inventories dip for a few weeks, the price will rise for a few weeks or months. When the refineries shut to switch over from Winter to Summer blends, prices will jiggle around a bit. If Iran or Nigeria has a civil war, supply could have an expensive hiccup for several months. If OPEC tightens its belt hard to manipulate prices, they can do it for a couple of years.
But if the US is producing a million, or 1 1/2 million more barrels per day, year after year; no other force out there is as powerful in the long run.
The question may be: How long can the Saudis, Russkis, etc., hold out while limiting their production, as they have been?
Oil prices are up quite a bit since early 2016, and higher than (basically) 1986-2003. Here’s a good, inflation adjusted chart:
http://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart
The questions are: Can US (and friends) increases more than make up for OPEC and friends’ production cuts and global demand increases? And, is overall INCOME to the OPEC and friends nations sufficient for them to hold out with production cuts? I’d sure like to see 50 year petro revenue charts for Saudi, Iran, Russia, etc.