The FISA warrant application and testimony could answer the question for the NYTimes, CNN, regular propagandist crowd. Maybe they should demand its publication:) I doubt this is the foundation for the warrant application.
Correct.
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Agreed. Doubt this drunken exchange with a foreign national in a bar would have triggered the investigation for a number of reasons.
1) Why wait six months after starting the investigation before interviewing little ol' Popadopolos if he was such a central part of the investigation?
2) Why would there be such a focus on Carter Page right out of the gate since he wasn't any part of the bar banter? Carter Page was a minor advisor for a short time but was covered extensively in the Dirty Dossier and was clearly a target of the investigation early on. The only way you generate interest in Carter Page is through the alleged deal making cited in the Dirty Dossier.
3) I'm still inclined to believe that Simpson and his wife created the framework of the DD in their own office based on ten year old research they had published together back when. She said as much in a published statement not so long ago when she said Simpson wasn't given enough "credit" for the Dirty Dossier. They dressed it up with a little current news (like Carter Page giving the speech) and some salacious lies that were cut from whole cloth to add a little spice. They then handed it off to Steele to flesh out some of the Russian names and any other rumors he could come up with through his paid informants and present it to his DOJ contacts which he had cultivated earlier. I've read somewhere that the writing styles on some the later memos are noticeably different than the early memos which would support the fact that it is a combined effort marketed to Steele's contacts as his own work.