The next question would be where India and Russia fit into these calculations.
There is little question that India will feel that an iron crescent has descended and been firmly implanted on their northern border. They have neither the military or the commercial strength to prevent it. Suppose they will remain autonomous but will mold their nation to accommodate new cultural, economic and military realities. If the US is smart , it won’t try to intervene and fight the coming economic and cultural tides. Russia will have a similar challenge on their southern borders but will have natural resources to sell.