Posted on 11/17/2017 9:35:39 AM PST by Olog-hai
A collapse of exploratory talks on forming a new German government under Chancellor Angela Merkel would likely trigger snap elections, a prospect fraught with risk for Europe’s top economic power.
The inconclusive September 24th general election left Merkel seeking new partners as she attempts to embark on a fourth term.
However, a failure of her conservatives to find enough common ground with the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) and the ecologist Greens to embark on formal coalition talks would leave the country in political limbo.
Before new elections could be called under Germany’s Basic Law, the Bundestag lower house of parliament would have to be dissolved by the president.
Normally, the chancellor could trigger this by calling a confidence vote in parliament; but because Merkel is only the head of a caretaker government, she does not have this option. …
(Excerpt) Read more at thelocal.de ...
Merkel and “her conservatives”???
Since when is she a conservative?
I have a feeling it means something different over there
Keep in mind, the entire problem is that Merkel would rather govern with “Green” Party Stalinists than with nationalists.
A CDU/CSU alliance with the nationalist AfD would get them to 49% of the seats. The problem is that 1%; the AfD is even more repugnant to most of the socially liberal Free Democratic Party. But there is a euroskeptic faction. I would suspect a few FDP might jump ship to a CDU/AfD alliance, if only Merkel would push for it.
The amusing thing is that you could have another election, and end up with very similar results. On the the AfD front, some disenchantment exists...they might get less than five-percent on the second go-around.
There are 719 members of the Bundestag. So, a governing majority requires 355. Merkel’s bifurcated party has 236 seats, and the Free Democrats 80, for a total of 326.
Merkel rules out a coalition with the Alternative Party, which has 94 seats (counting the 2 who became independents).
The Alternative Party could simply say we like what the Christian Social Union of Bavaria and the FDP are demanding regarding immigration and other issues, so we will advise our members to abstain in the election of Chancellor. If we don’t like what develops, we might join with the other opposition parties to force a snap election, but we promise not to do this for at least one year.
I am thinking that, as the Christian Democrats drift to the center, the CSU, FDP and AfD could form a new and formidable center-right party.
Elections could be averted with a new “grand coalition” with the Social Democrats. However, they will likely demand Merkel step down to make it palatable to their members.
If she insists on sticking around, the country is definitely headed for new elections.
This is exactly what it’s all about-the AfD.
All other parties, I repeat, ALL other parties, have clearly stated they will never co-operate with AfD in any way.
CSU is going to left out in the cold until they come to their senses. It’s a repeat of 1976.
CDU-FDP-Greens can easily rule in a minority coalition.
Minority government, that’s the ticket.
Back in 1974, there were only three parties (CDU/CSU, SDP and FDP). In this set-up, the FDP’ often played the roll of kingmaker. Today, with six parties (CDU/CSU, SDP and FDP, and also Left, Green and AfD), with AfD and maybe the Left off limits, it’s difficult to assemble a cogent coalition.
I think CSU is overplaying their ( weak ) hand.
Merkel is going to tell them ciao
CSU operates in one state (Bavaria) and CDU in the other fifteen. CSU is, indeed, to the right of CDU. Think of Texas and the Republican Party of Texas being separate from the Republican Party in the rest of the U.S.
If Merkel were to disrespect CSU, it would spell trouble for her and CDU. Possibly CSU would organize nationwide and relegate CDU to minor party status.
CSU is currently in the absolute majority in Bavaria. It has ruled Bavaria either in absolute majority or as lead party in a coalition government continuously since the formation of the Federal Republic of Germany.
Reflecting the conservative orientation of CSU, Bavaria is considered to be an economic powerhouse.
Bavaria has the third highest GDP per capita of the states of Germany, following the city-states of Hamburg and Bremen. To make a valid comparison to Hamburg and Bremen, you’d want to compare Munich (only) to them, and GDP per capita in Munich is roughly similar to those two city-states. Among German cities, Munich is second only to Frankfort in GDP per capita.
Finally, I will mention that the unemployment rate in Bavaria is 3.8 percent, as compared to 6.8 percent nationwide; and, is tied for first among the states of Germany.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_German_states_by_GDP
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_metropolitan_areas_in_the_European_Union_by_GDP
CSU under Seehöfer got trounced in recent election. Its a party of cranky time servers with hardly any seats. Needs to reform PDQ or it will be out of power come next Sept. Let’s hope the girl wins leadership. She can return CSU to Franz Josef times.
you might want to get familiar with the situation in 1976, when the CSU got too big for its britches and got its fanny wacked.
As for CSU being a loser: It is the only party in Germany that is in absolute majority in a state parliament:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/States_of_Germany
As for the result of the FEDERAL election in 2017 in Bavaria, this is complicated by the drift to the center of Merkel.
FDP and AfD did well in Bavaria, and FW got 3.7 percent of the vote with no chance of entering the Federal parliament.
To remain the dominant party of Bavaria, CSU must shore up its position on the right. This aspect of local politics is reflective of CSU’s negotiating position with Merkel at this time. But, in this age of splintering of parties, it wouldn’t be embarrassing for CSU to win next year’s state election with “only” 40 percent of the vote.
LOL - CSU got it hind whupped because Seehofer steered it wrong into intolerance & zenophobia and away from its Christian traditions.
Franz Josef would have never allowed himself to be outmanuvered by amateurs wack jobs like the AfD.
The CSU trajectory has been steeply downhill for a long time. It’s become a party of dinosaur party hacks, not leadership.
Unless they change their leadership at next months party congress to someone modern like the young economics minister, they are going to get crushed in Sept.
CDU is also ready to chuck the loser CSU.
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