[PghBaldy]

700 is not small sample if it is reasonable Dem-Rep-Ind makeup.

[Dalberg-Acton]

Big “IF”.

[billyboy15]

But it wasn’t a legit spread. The latest Pew survey of demographics by party affiliation in Alabama had a 12 point spread between Democrats and Republicans with Republicans of course having a greater lead while in this poll they showed Republican registrations leading Democrat by just four or five.

The state has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1980, and Democrats have not seriously contested the state since. ... In 2004, George W. Bush won Alabama’s nine electoral votes by a margin of 25 percentage points with 62.5% of the vote, mostly white voters.
Elections in Alabama - Wikipedia

[Dr. Sivana]

700 is not small sample if it is reasonable Dem-Rep-Ind makeup.

True. My suspicion is that the likely voter numbers are going to be hard to figure. This is a special election in the middle of December. I see very low turnout with pro-Moore forces far more motivated than anti-Moore (there is no real pro-Jones movement) forces.