Dems already lost the runoff Senate election in Lousiana (and I thought there were one or two more) after Trump was elected; at this point people need to see a tangible result of voting for him. Here in NJ we just had a Republican lose to a Democrat for governor, but she wasn’t a Trump supporter (and the state as a whole wasn’t either) - Trump played no role in the race.
The NJ race was a repudiation of Chris Christie. A cat in a hat with a “D” by his name was getting elected.